Gold prices rose 0.84% on Friday, closing the first week in the green after three straight weekly declines. Silver was up 1.58% by Friday’s close, ending the week with a 2.72% rise. Both metals were about 0.60% weaker during Monday’s Asian session.
Precious metals remain in a tight range, with gold caught between geopolitical and safe-haven support on one side and restrictive US monetary policy on the other, with the outlook for inflation and the pace of additional Fed hikes likely to remain the key drivers. However, with oil prices retreating on Monday, downside for the yellow metal looks limited as inflation fears ease. Hopes of diplomacy in the Iran war and a quick repair of the East-West pipeline to restore half its capacity are weighing on oil prices. For gold to make a meaningful upside move, a clear downtrend in oil or bond yields will likely be required.
Technically, Gold prices remain in a tight range and are lacking a clear, discernible trend. The daily chart shows RSI at 50, indicating a lack of momentum, while prices have recently broken above the 200-day EMA, suggesting an upside tilt. A key level to cross would be $4,437 from early September highs, before further buying could be seen. On the downside, the $4,235 lows from 16th September remain near-term support levels for the bullion. Silver could see potential resistance near Friday’s high around $67.33, while it could remain supported by the 200-day EMA near $65.54.
Gold prices in the UAE today are as follows:
24 Carat – AED 525.00
22 Carat – AED 486.00
21 Carat – AED 466.00
18 Carat – AED 399.50
With the Nasdaq 100 gaining 2.34% last week while the S&P 500 remained broadly flat, US equities enter the current week on a positive note. At the time of writing, the Nasdaq 100 is trading at 29,800, up 0.23%, while the S&P 500 stands at 7,679, up 0.30%. Valuations remain elevated, with the Nasdaq 100 trading at a trailing P/E of 34.15x while the S&P 500 trades at 23.25x. The premium valuation of technology stocks continues to reflect strong expectations for AI-driven growth and earnings.
Technology remains the key driver of Nasdaq performance, supported by semiconductor strength and continued AI momentum. MicroStrategy gained 48% over the past month, making it the strongest Nasdaq 100 performer, while Coinbase, Strategy and Robinhood also benefited from the recovery in cryptocurrencies. Berkshire Hathaway is undergoing a significant leadership transition, with Warren Buffett moving to chairman emeritus as Greg Abel takes over as CEO. Xenon Pharmaceuticals tumbled 30.7% after temporarily pausing enrollment in clinical trials for its experimental depression treatment following reports of side effects. Nucor and Steel Dynamics faced pressure after issuing weaker-than-expected third-quarter earnings guidance, while Netflix declined 4.67% following a Wells Fargo downgrade. US exchange volume stood at 25.29 billion shares, significantly above the 20-day average of 16.19 billion.
This week, focus remains on the Trump-Xi summit, tariffs, critical minerals and AI, alongside Middle East developments. Global monetary policy also remains in focus, with the Fed and ECB tightening, while the BOJ raised rates to a 31-year high.
Technically, the Nasdaq 100 is near trendline resistance, making a short position a potential intraday trade. Immediate support is at the 9-day EMA of 29,477, followed by the 100-day EMA at 28,994. Key resistance is at 30,243, the previous month’s high. For the S&P 500, support is at the 9-day EMA of 7,641, while resistance is at 7,710, which falls on the trendline resistance.
Crude Oil
Oil prices extended their decline for a fourth straight session, with Brent down 1.34% to around $103.05 a barrel and WTI down 1.63% at $98.61 at the time of writing. Markets are increasingly focusing on diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war. The latest pullback has put Brent on track for its longest losing streak since June, while improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz have eased some of the immediate supply concerns that had driven the sharp rally in crude.
Crude and LNG flows through Hormuz have risen to a six-month high over the past two weeks, with US Central Command saying the main shipping lanes remain clear. More than 1 billion barrels of crude have reportedly moved through the waterway in recent months, suggesting that the worst of the supply disruption may have passed. The prospect of further diplomatic progress, including potential US-Iran discussions, is adding to the pressure on prices. However, Brent remains nearly 70% higher this year, and the supply picture is still fragile given ongoing risks to Middle Eastern infrastructure and continued attacks on Russian energy facilities.
The downside is also being cushioned by tighter refined-product markets, particularly diesel, which have risen more sharply than crude and continue to keep broader energy inflation elevated. Saudi Arabia is still working to restore its East-West pipeline following recent attacks, while uncertainty around alternative routes to bypass Hormuz highlights the continued importance of the waterway to global energy flows. For now, the improving transit situation and diplomatic efforts are weighing on prices. However, with supply risks still present, Brent around $100 remains an important area for the market to assess whether the current decline can develop into a sustained downtrend.
Oil remains under pressure. WTI found support from a descending trendline, which extends up to the 96.78 area and may help cushion near-term downside moves. The 20-period EMA on the 4-hour chart near 95.72 is acting as the next key support level. The contract is also finding resistance. On the upside, resistance is firmly placed around 101.18, where the 4-hour 20-period EMA coincides with today’s highs, creating a strong technical barrier that could cap further gains. For Brent crude, immediate support is seen at 101.96, a level that has provided multiple recent reactions. A break below this zone could expose the 20-period EMA near 101.26, which serves as the next major support. Meanwhile, 106.10 remains a significant resistance level overhead and is likely to limit upside attempts unless accompanied by a stronger bullish catalyst.
U.S. Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index gained 1.13% last week, reaching a seven-week high of 100.564, and is currently trading at 100.321, up 0.11%. The dollar’s recent strength is being driven primarily by a shift in US rate expectations, with the Federal Reserve delivering a 25-bps rate hike last week to 3.75%-4.00% and signalling further tightening as inflation remains elevated. Rate expectations have strengthened materially, with the CME FedWatch Tool pricing a 53.1% probability of another 25-bps hike at the October meeting, compared with 27.2% a week earlier. This repricing supports the dollar by keeping the US rate differential favourable and reinforcing a higher-for-longer policy outlook.
The yen is also providing relative support to the DXY. Although the Bank of Japan raised rates to 1.25%, its highest level in 31 years, two policymakers dissented and the accompanying guidance was not sufficiently hawkish, leaving the yen vulnerable. Japanese authorities have also reportedly conducted rate checks, increasing intervention concerns.
Technically, the dollar index is consolidating inside an ascending wedge, where lower support aligns around 100.2, and upper resistance coincides with last session’s high at 100.564. A bullish breakout above 100.564 opens the path toward the major overhead target at 100.8. Conversely, losing the 100.02 wedge support exposes deeper pullback levels at 100.03. Meanwhile, EURUSD faces resistance from a descending trendline which coincides with its 20-period 4hr EMA at 1.1493, while structural support on the downside remains at 1.1447.
