US Stocks Rally on AI Boom as Oil Eases and Gold Slips – Comments from Century Financial

The AI trade remains the primary market catalyst. AMD surged nearly 10% to cross a $1 trillion market valuation, while Arm Holdings gained 17.16%, Astera Labs 12.36%, Intel 12.14% and Meta 11.43%. Intel’s reported ability to meet only around 50% of customer chip demand further highlights the strength of semiconductor demand. Grail also surged 34% ahead of an FDA advisory-panel review of its multi-cancer blood test, while Warner Bros. Discovery gained 10.79% following the Paramount Skydance settlement that removes a major regulatory obstacle to their proposed merger. Moderna gained 12.27% ahead of cancer-vaccine data, while Novo Nordisk fell 7.96% as investors questioned its pricing power and longer-term growth outlook.

For intraday traders, bias remains bullish, supported by strong AI momentum, falling oil prices and retreating Treasury yields. Technically, the Nasdaq 100 has immediate support at 29,792, which aligns with the descending trendline and 9-day EMA, followed by the 20-day EMA at 29,565. Immediate resistance is at the all-time high of 30,759. The S&P 500 has immediate support at 7,700, which aligns with the descending trendline, followed by the previous session low at 7,645. Immediate resistance is at the all-time high of 7,816.

Crude Oil
Crude oil is up 1% at 97.078 in today’s trade after falling for four consecutive sessions as traders weigh the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough against persistent risks to physical supply in the Middle East. Easing supply concerns in the Middle East and renewed diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war continued to weigh on prices. Markets are closely watching President Donald Trump’s address to the UN General Assembly, with a potential meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and further discussions with Gulf nations and China adding to expectations that a diplomatic resolution could reduce the geopolitical premium in crude.

Physical supply signals have also improved. Saudi Arabia moved around 2.9 million barrels of crude per day through the Strait of Hormuz over the past six days, while satellite imagery showed supertankers with a combined capacity of roughly 14 million barrels at Saudi Arabia’s Gulf export terminals over the weekend, the highest observed tanker count since at least June. These developments suggest Saudi Arabia is increasingly able to maintain exports despite disruptions to its East-West pipeline, easing fears of an extended supply shortage.

However, the downside remains constrained by the still-fragile regional supply situation. A tanker was reportedly struck in the Strait of Hormuz, while output at Libya’s largest oil field has fallen by more than half following a pipeline shutdown. For now, improving flows and diplomacy are taking some geopolitical premium out of crude, but ongoing infrastructure and shipping risks mean the market remains sensitive to any setback in the Middle East.

WTI continues to hold above its 20-day EMA, with the level once again acting as a constructive support zone after successfully containing downside pressure in the previous session. As long as prices remain above this moving average, the near-term bias remains stable, although upside momentum is likely to face resistance around 98.975. For Brent crude, holding above 102.22 remains critical, as a break below this level could expose the 20-day EMA near 101.15, which served as an effective support area yesterday and remains an important line of defense for bulls. On the upside, resistance is seen at 103.36, where the 4-hour 20-period EMA aligns with a descending trendline, creating a strong confluence zone that is likely to cap gains unless buyers can generate a decisive breakout.

U.S. Dollar Index
The dollar index is up 0.07% today and is currently trading at $100.50.

From a fundamental standpoint, the US Dollar continues to trade on a stronger footing following the Fed’s decision last week to begin tightening monetary policy. However, the Greenback, according to Bloomberg, could face challenges amid increased risk-on sentiment as investors look to the upcoming US-China summit for signs of improving relations between the world’s two largest economies. On the Middle East front, hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough have improved investor mood after news that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will lead a delegation at the UN General Assembly, alongside comments from US President Donald Trump indicating he would likely be open to a side meeting.

From a technical standpoint, the hourly chart shows tailwinds from strong momentum, suggesting a bullish stance for the day. On the hourly chart, it is trading near the support of an upward-trending channel, suggesting attractive entry opportunities at the current price level, with targets reaching $100.75. On the flip side, the nearest support is at 100.30. This level acts as strong horizontal and channel support; a failure here could bring bears back in control.

Gold & Silver
Precious metals started this week on a weaker note, with gold prices falling 0.80% on Monday, while Silver closed 0.35% lower. Monday’s Asian session saw further weakness in metals, with gold falling 0.72% and silver down 1.40%.

Metals are under pressure today as renewed inflation concerns and a rise in oil buying interest, after five sessions of declines, weigh on the market. Tensions in the Middle East, driven by Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi actions, are offsetting diplomatic efforts and the restart of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian is leading a delegation to the UN General Assembly in New York today, raising hopes for diplomacy. Meanwhile, expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve are limiting gold gains this week, even though the US Dollar stays stable. Investors are also cautious ahead of the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday, awaiting updates before making major moves in gold. Therefore, gold is likely to stay within its current range unless the Middle East conflict worsens and triggers another surge in oil prices.

Technically, Gold seems to be losing momentum as the daily RSI has slid below the 50 level. Prices have been pretty range-bound this month, with near-term support potentially at the $4261 level from an upward-sloping trendline connecting the lows of 17th July, 29th July, 3rd August, and 16th September. Silver shows a similar market structure, with potential support around $63.36 from the lows of mid-August and September.