US Markets
The SPX Index is up 0.29% and is currently at $7,790.
From a fundamental standpoint, the SPX Index climbed after more details emerged about OpenAI’s estimated revenue, suggesting Wall Street technology shares’ weakness may be contained. OpenAI expects to reach or exceed $70 billion in annualised revenue by year-end, driven largely by growth in its enterprise business, according to people familiar with the matter. That lifted sentiment after US shares retreated Thursday following a Financial Times report that OpenAI’s annualised revenue was $20 billion below previously signalled levels. Relief also came as crude oil declined, with Brent crude dropping 0.5% to $106.4 a barrel after President Donald Trump said the US won’t attack Iran ahead of November’s midterm elections. Looking ahead, earnings season starts next week.
From a technical standpoint, the SPX Index bounced after retesting its breakout at the $7,770-$7,780 price mark, supporting a bullish standpoint for the day. Furthermore, it must be noted that this level coincides with the retest of the trendline resistance break as well. The trendline connects the highs of $7,817 on 13th August 2026, $7,783 on 21st September 2026, and $7,780 on 23rd September 2026.
US Dollar Index
The dollar index trades near 102.03, holding firm within its recent uptrend, as the gap between US and global equity performance continues to support the greenback. The S&P 500 hit a record this week while European and Asian bourses struggled, pushing US equity outperformance to its highest level this year, a dynamic that historically coincides with dollar strength as “US exceptionalism” re-emerges as a theme.
The dollar has gained over 3% from its September trough, driven by continued Mideast tensions and turmoil in French bond markets, both of which continue to fuel haven demand. Widening rate differentials remain a key driver, with markets pricing roughly 60bps of Fed hikes over the next six months versus only ~46bps from the BOJ, keeping the US seen as one of the more hawkish major central banks. Next week’s US CPI print is the key catalyst, Fed rate expectations have cooled slightly from mid-September but look poised to inflect higher heading into the data, leaving few places for dollar bears to hide. Elevated energy costs, driven by soaring tanker rates and reduced refining capacity rather than just crude prices themselves, continue to provide a structural floor under the dollar. The main risk to the rally is that the currency’s advance has tracked rising real yields closely, and any disappointment in AI-driven growth expectations, as briefly seen after OpenAI’s revenue run-rate came in below some estimates, could pull real yields and the dollar lower if repeated.
On the technical side, the index is consolidating within a rising wedge on the 4H chart, holding above its ascending trendline support near 101.6–101.9. Resistance sits at 102.43, then 102.78, while support lies at 101.53, then the trendline base near 101.20. A break above 102.43 would open the way toward 102.78–103.20, confirming continuation of the broader uptrend, while a break below the rising trendline would risk a deeper pullback toward 101.20. The bias stays bullish while the index holds above its ascending trendline, in line with the broader dollar-strength narrative.
EUR/USD trades near 1.1226, testing resistance at its descending trendline from the late-September high, after finding support at 1.1180. A rejection here keeps the bias tilted toward a retest of 1.1180, then the 1.1065 level flagged as the next downside target if selling resumes. Only a decisive close above the trendline, currently near 1.1260–1.1280, would open the way toward 1.1400, challenging the broader downtrend.
Crude Oil
After yesterday’s sharp rally, oil eased on Friday after President Trump said he would likely refrain from attacking Iran before the mid-term elections. He stated that productive discussions were underway and that the record numbers of crude shipments flowing through the Strait of Hormuz was an encouraging sign. That said, global oil inventories have been significantly depleted and are now at their lowest level in five years. At the same time, disruptions to Russian refined-product exports amid the ongoing conflict with Ukraine have tightened fuel availability, prompting refineries elsewhere to compete aggressively for crude supplies to maintain operations. Amid these conflicting factors, oil has remained volatile this week, with Brent remaining well above $100, but down 0.45% for the day at $106.58. WTI is down 0.33% at $92.61. Meanwhile, China, the world’s largest oil importer, is set to resume refined-fuel exports following a brief pause during the Golden Week holiday, potentially easing tight global supplies of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. Additionally, the IEA has agreed to accelerate the release of emergency oil reserves and prioritize diesel supplies under a plan launched in March. Supply disruptions persist in the Gulf of Mexico, where Hurricane Isaias has forced producers to shut in around 1.3 million bpd, or 62.9% of regional oil output. The disruption is supporting prices in the near term, although its duration will depend on post-storm inspections and the pace at which production resumes.
On the technical front, Brent is retesting the upward-sloping trendline support from which it broke out yesterday, aligning with the 20-EMA on the 4-hour chart at $105.47, which now acts as support. A rebound from this level could potentially result in a way up to $107.78 and $108.26. Recent trend-based Fibonacci extensions mark this zone as the next potential resistance. WTI rebounded from $91.77 – a level that serves as very strong support as indicated by the confluence of two recent-trend based Fibonacci extensions and one fib retracement. This could potentially take the commodity higher to $94.89, which marks yesterday’s high. On the other hand, a break below could result in a drop to support levels located at $91.08 and $90.04.
Gold and Silver
Precious metals rebounded after crude and yields pulled back yesterday. Gold is trading above $4,190, and silver is above $60. Oil prices are lower as President Trump indicated further action on Iran would not be taken until the midterms. Today’s bias turns to bullish.
Gold broke above the $4,180 level today, underscoring the potential for the precious metal to ratchet higher into year-end on sustained buying from central banks and retail investors. Total known ETF bullion holdings are up 0.3% this week, extending the 12-week streak of gains posted through April 18, 2025. Exchange-traded funds added 55,900 troy ounces of gold to their holdings in the last trading session, bringing this year’s net purchases to 2.36 million ounces, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This was the fifth straight day of growth. The 10-year yield cooled down below 5.25%. Further out on the curve, 20- and 30-year duration yields also pulled back due to strong auction demand.
Technically, $4,150-$4,170 is a crucial support zone for gold. VWAP anchored to today’s first hourly trading candle also aligns with this level. Secondary support sits around $4,120. On the upside, resistance is likely around $4,220-$4,230, near the 20-day SMA, followed by $4,270. Long entries can be considered on a bounce back from $4,160, with $4,200 as the TP level.
For Silver, the $59.5-$59.7 level acts as crucial support, while $61-$61.5 acts as initial resistance, followed by $62. Long entries can be considered on a bounce back from $59.7, with $61 as the TP level.
