U.S. Markets
The SPX closed 0.6% lower yesterday amid market disappointment over news that deal talks between the US and Iran were delayed. However, indices are recovering in today’s session after President Trump announced yesterday, after market close, an extension of the ceasefire in Iran and the continuation of the blockade to exert economic pressure. SPX is up 0.3% back above the $7,100 level, and the bias is moderately bullish.
The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, rose 3.3% yesterday to 19.50, its highest level since April 8 (the day the Iran-U.S. cease-fire started), following the geopolitical uncertainty. However, after yesterday’s announcement of a ceasefire extension and strong earnings from companies, the VIX reading is likely to edge lower and ease market nervousness today. Technology stocks are likely to maintain their lead in index gains. Sixteen out of the top 20 performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year are beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure boom. Earnings from U.S. chipmaker Texas Instruments and Elon Musk’s Tesla later in the global day will also be crucial to understanding how companies are navigating the upheaval in energy and supply chains. On the economic front, retail sales painted a solid picture, rising 1.7% MoM in March. It was the fastest one-month rise in retail sales in more than three years. Looking at the 0 DTE options data, the $7,150 level could act as resistance given the positive gamma concentration here. On the downside, the $7,100 level could act as support with the positive dealer gamma concentration. The $7,000 strike level still represents the highest gamma concentration zone outside 0 DTE flows. This is a strong possible support level.
Technically, on a 4-hour chart, SPX is trading above the 20 EMA around $7,087, which is likely to act as initial support, followed by the $7,000-$7,050 range. On the daily time frame, it is comfortably above all EMAs (EMAs sloping higher). Initial resistance could be in the $7,150 zone, followed by $7,200.
Crude Oil
Both WTI and Brent rallied sharply, rising 5% in yesterday’s session amid intensified geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In early Asian hours today, WTI is trading 1.8% lower near $91.4, and Brent is 1.5% down at $98, as markets react to rising cautious optimism around a potential restart of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.
The broader backdrop still remains highly uncertain. While President Trump has extended the ceasefire indefinitely, the continuation of the blockade and Iran’s refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without concessions suggest that supply disruptions are far from resolved. Oil prices are reacting to news headlines, as markets weigh diplomatic progress against the risk of new conflict. Overall flows of tankers remain significantly restricted, keeping the geopolitical risk premium and supply concerns elevated. API data in the U.S. also showed a larger-than-expected drop of 4.4 million barrels compared to the 1 million forecast, pointing to strong demand as supply tightens.
From an intraday perspective, a slightly bearish bias persists as hopes for renewed talks grow, but any price drop may be limited, as supply risks remain high. Developments around U.S.–Iran talks will be monitored, and any updates on shipping activity through Hormuz may be looked at for near-term direction. From a technical perspective, WTI faces resistance at yesterday’s high of $95, and support lies at $88. For Brent, resistance is likely to be found around $100-102, with support near $95.
U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index gained ~0.36% yesterday, briefly touching a one-week high before settling near 98.36, as the dollar found support from stronger macro data and a shift in rate expectations.
The key driver was the strength in the U.S. economy. Retail sales rose 1.7% in March, beating expectations, signalling that consumption remains firm despite rising energy costs. This has reinforced the view that the U.S. economy is holding up well, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. At the same time, comments from Fed nominee Kevin Warsh added to the positive tone. He emphasized the Fed’s independence and made it clear that there is no commitment to rate cuts. This was seen as slightly hawkish and helped push expectations of easing further out. Markets are now pricing a higher probability that rates stay unchanged well into 2027, which continues to support the dollar through higher-for-longer rate expectations. Geopolitics is adding another layer of support. While the ceasefire has been extended, uncertainty remains high, especially with internal divisions within Iran and no clear progress toward a lasting agreement. Energy flows remain uncertain, keeping inflation risks elevated and reinforcing the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. The euro remains stable near 1.174, showing limited momentum, while the yen continues to trade weakly near 159, supported by low volatility and carry trade flows.
Technically, the index broke out of a descending trendline yesterday, which had been pressuring the dollar since the 1st week of April. The index seems to be trading well, supported by an ascending trendline that started forming from the monthly low of 97.65, with the long-term ascending trendline from 2008 also providing support for the dollar. Resistance for the day is seen at the day’s high of 98.40; if broken, yesterday’s high of 98.56 will act as the next resistance. Support is seen at 9 SMA near 98.20, followed by yesterday’s low of 98.05. For EURUSD, the currency has formed a tweezer top in spirit on the daily chart, signalling a reversal of the recent bullish trend. Resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.176, followed by yesterday’s high of 1.179. Support is seen at yesterday’s low of 1.173, followed by the 100 SMA near 1.170.
Gold and Silver
Trump’s extension of the ceasefire with Iran offered some respite for gold, as it has left the door open to further discussions toward a peace deal. The ongoing war has raised concerns about a potential uptick in inflation, thereby capping gold’s gains after it rebounded by more than 19% from its 200-day SMA over the past 3-4 weeks. That said, gold is now rebounding from its one-week low as the dollar retreated after an indefinite extension of the ceasefire. On the flip side, remarks from Kevin Warsh during his Senate confirmation hearing on Tuesday came across as modestly hawkish. He emphasized that he would operate independently of the White House while pursuing broader reforms and clarified that he had made no commitments to Trump regarding interest rate cuts. On the data front, stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales reinforced the resilience of the economy, prompting economists to revise their first-quarter growth estimates higher. These events have provided a near-term floor to the dollar, keeping gold range-bound until further catalysts emerge.
Meanwhile, several U.S. states, including Georgia, Arizona, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Utah, have proposed legislation to allow gold and silver to be used as legal tender to hedge against higher inflation. Silver is also seeing demand from the semiconductor and solar panel industries. Demand for renewable energy is set to keep rising, particularly as the rapid expansion of AI-driven data centres drives a sharp increase in electricity consumption. That trend is already showing up in physical demand, with China continuing to ramp up silver imports to a record ~836 tons in March, well above the 10-year seasonal average of around 306 tons.
Gold is up 1% at $4,765, with immediate support around $4,704. The 5-period RSI on the day chart is hovering near neutral territory at 49.36. It faces immediate resistance around the declining 50-day SMA at $4,883, a critical level to breach. RSI is flat at 49 while the MACD remains net negative with no crossover, signalling intraday upside could be capped near the 50-day SMA. Only a strong rally and a daily close above $4,883 would flip the bias toward a more bullish move. Silver is up 2.46% at $78.56. The intraday outlook points to a cautious bullish bias for the session. Silver is now sitting just above the 50-SMA at $78.23 and 200-SMA at $76.78 on the 4-hour chart — both of which are now acting as a supportive floor beneath the price. RSI at 54 has crossed above its signal line with room to run before overbought territory. The MACD, while still slightly negative, is tightening toward a bullish crossover. The key intraday level to hold is $78.23 (SMA 50) — if price stays above it, dip buyers could come in and target $80.00, then $84.00. Meanwhile, a failure back below 76.78 (SMA 200) would invalidate the bullish read entirely.
