To sharpen weather forecasts
Nasa has extended its Prefire mission until at least September 2026, expanding the operation of its twin CubeSats beyond the polar regions to cover the entire planet. The small satellites are collecting data aimed at improving climate models and weather forecasting by monitoring how heat leaves Earth’s atmosphere.
Prefire, short for Polar Radiant Energy in the Far-InfraRed Experiment, was launched in May and June 2024. The mission has so far focused on measuring far-infrared radiation emitted from the Arctic and Antarctic. These polar regions play a key role in the planet’s energy balance, as they radiate heat that has been absorbed in the tropics and redistributed by atmospheric and oceanic systems.
The Earth absorbs most of its solar energy in equatorial regions, while the poles—receiving less direct sunlight—act as thermal release valves. The Prefire satellites, each no larger than a shoebox, are equipped with high-resolution spectrometers designed by Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
These instruments detect a wider range of far-infrared wavelengths than any previous system, enabling scientists to assess how water vapour, clouds, and different ice types affect the planet’s heat emissions.
Nasa researchers say this information is critical for understanding key processes such as snow accumulation, cloud formation, and ice melt. Brian Drouin, Prefire’s project scientist at JPL, said the data show that radiation at far-infrared wavelengths can differ by up to 5% depending on the type of ice. He said this variation is not captured by measurements taken at shorter wavelengths.
Until now, the mission’s analysis has concentrated on the poles. With the extension in place, the research team will broaden the scope to include global coverage.
Tristan L’Ecuyer, Prefire’s principal investigator from the University of Wisconsin–Madison, said the team plans to study the size of ice particles in clouds and how they affect energy exchange between Earth and space. He said this could lead to better forecasting of severe weather, storm formation, and precipitation patterns worldwide.
The CubeSats are in asynchronous near-polar orbits, passing over the same area hours apart. This provides two snapshots of atmospheric conditions within short timeframes, which is valuable for detecting fast-changing phenomena like shifting cloud cover.
Accurate weather prediction has gained renewed urgency as countries across the Middle East and Africa experience more frequent extreme weather events linked to climate change. The UAE, for example, saw record rainfall in April 2024 that flooded key infrastructure in Dubai and Sharjah. According to the World Meteorological Organization, the frequency of such events in the Mena region has increased by more than 30% over the past two decades.
Enhanced models driven by data from missions like Prefire could provide better lead times for authorities responding to storms, droughts, and other weather-related risks. This is particularly relevant in water-scarce regions where rainfall is both unpredictable and essential to long-term planning.
The mission also comes amid broader scientific efforts to close key gaps in climate understanding. Far-infrared radiation accounts for nearly half of the energy Earth radiates into space, yet it remains one of the least studied components in climate systems due to technical limitations. Prefire is one of the first space missions explicitly focused on this spectrum.
Nasa manages Prefire through its Science Mission Directorate, with data processing carried out by the University of Wisconsin–Madison. Blue Canyon Technologies built the satellites, while Rocket Lab handled launch operations from its New Zealand site.
As the satellites continue to orbit, their expanding data collection may help refine forecasts not only in polar regions, but across tropical and arid zones—including key areas in the Gulf and sub-Saharan Africa.
Scientists hope the extended mission will bridge remaining knowledge gaps in how Earth retains and loses heat, shaping everything from rainfall distribution to storm intensity.
Image: This artist’s rendition depicts one of the two identical Prefire CubeSats orbiting Earth. Credit: Nasa/JPL-Caltech
