US Markets
US Markets snapped a three-day losing streak on Wednesday’s close with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in the green. Today, equity futures are mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 up marginally.
Though investors are worried about inflation, economic growth is expected to be solid, following record-breaking corporate profits in the second quarter. A strong U.S. economy and a strong outlook fueled by big investments in AI and data centres and technology in general are driving the markets.
Today, traders will be watching weekly jobless claims. The main economic event will be Friday’s August payrolls report.
In terms of earnings, reports are due from optical networking player Ciena and consumer staples giant Campbell’s, followed by Zscaler, Docusign and UiPath.
From a technical perspective, prices are near 7,662 and are trying to recapture the 9 and 21 EMA on the daily chart while exhibiting strong momentum. Daily RSI is now near 50, indicating further strength in pricing. On the 4-hour chart, immediate support is at the 200 EMA level of 7,638, followed by yesterday’s low of 7609. Immediate resistance is at 7,696, followed by 7,736 which is the 4th August breakout.
US Dollar Index
The dollar index has fallen to a 6-day low of 99.349, down 0.2%, retreating sharply from Wednesday’s near three-week high of 99.863. New York Fed President John Williams signalled no urgency to raise rates to counter persistent inflation, easing the hawkish pressure that had built up since Jackson Hole. Weak US ADP private payrolls data added to the softer tone, pulling September rate-hike odds down to 59%, from near 70% on Wednesday. Treasury yields have also eased from multi-year highs, with the 10-year slipping to 4.784%, removing a key pillar of dollar support, while lower oil prices weighed further as easing Gulf tensions reduced the safe-haven and energy-linked bid for the greenback. Focus now turns to Friday’s critical payrolls report and comments from Fed Governor Waller for further direction.
On the technical side, the index has broken down from its short-term rising channel, confirming a bearish reversal after failing to clear resistance in the 99.670–99.995 zone. Price is sliding toward support at 99.208, and a break below this level would expose 98.617, in line with the broader descending trendline from the late-August high. Resistance now flips to 99.408, followed by 99.670, both of which should act as caps on any bounce. The bias stays firmly bearish while price trades below 99.408.
EUR/USD holds firmer near 1.1589–1.1603, supported by the dollar’s retreat on dovish Fed signals and soft US labour data, with the ECB and BOJ policy meetings this month also in focus as markets watch for signs of continued tightening abroad.
Technically, the pair is forming a rising channel off the 1.1570 low, holding above support at 1.1594. A break above the channel’s upper boundary near 1.1620 would open the way toward 1.1670, then 1.1720. A buy-on-dips approach toward 1.1594–1.1600 is favoured while the rising channel structure holds, though a break below 1.1570 would invalidate the bullish setup and expose 1.1540.
Crude Oil
Oil prices steadied after a three-day rally as President Trump said renewed attacks on Iran would be short-lived. WTI is hovering around $90.5, with Brent around $96.4, as this week’s escalation delays negotiations toward lasting peace, supporting crude prices. The bias remains moderately bullish.
US crude inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels last week, the first decline since late July, according to EIA figures. Gasoline inventories also dropped. This keeps oil prices supported. Separately, US officials continue to point to consistent crude shipments exiting the Persian Gulf, despite persistent threats to shipping. This week, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the oil flow is averaging about 8 million barrels a day through the waterway. This keeps a check on a sharp rally, absent prolonged escalation.
Technically, WTI remains constructive after holding above key support at $88.70, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $87.50 providing the next layer of support. On the upside, resistance is concentrated in the $93-$93.50 zone, followed by $94.50.
A pullback into the $88-$89 range could offer a long entry, targeting $93 initially. Alternatively, a sustained break above $93.50 could trigger a momentum move toward $94.50.
Gold and Silver
Today, Gold is up 0.70% to $4,420 per ounce, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields despite continuing geopolitical concerns. This comes after a sharp drop earlier in the week, as investors turned their attention to U.S. economic reports.
The main focus is Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which could determine gold’s next move. Recent labour-market data have been supportive for gold, with weaker-than-expected job growth in the ADP report and the Fed’s Beige Book showing only modest employment gains. A weaker-than-expected NFP report could reduce expectations for further Fed tightening and support gold, while a stronger report could push yields and the dollar higher, putting pressure on bullion.
Gold remains sensitive to FED policy changes. Higher energy prices and tensions in the Middle East have increased inflation concerns, while recent softer labour-market data have created uncertainty about the need for further policy tightening. Investors are now awaiting the upcoming employment and inflation data.
Gold reclaimed the 100-day SMA, improving the near-term outlook. The $4,475 can be considered as an immediate resistance level, followed by$4,500–$4,525. A break above this zone could pave the way for additional gains. Support is located at $4,380, followed by $4,320 and $4,250.
Silver is currently trading at $65.89 and may test resistance at $67.90. A break above this level could send prices toward $70. However, if the price falls below $63.90, the outlook would weaken, bringing the $62.80 support level into focus.
