- US Markets
The SPX slipped 1.12% yesterday, while the NASDAQ fell 1.9%. Over the week, the SPX has declined 1.75%, as investors have grown cautious amid stretched valuations and an uncertain economic outlook.
Markets remain tense as the government shutdown drags on, now marking the longest in U.S. history. The closure is costing roughly $15 billion a week and weighing on global sentiment. The lack of new economic data has left the Fed with limited visibility on labor market trends, complicating its decision on whether a December rate cut is warranted. Inflation remains sticky, according to the October 17 CPI report. The probability of a cut has fallen from 95% in mid-October to 67.1% based on CME FedWatch. Earlier market optimism was driven by expectations of Fed easing and AI-led earnings strength, but with one of those drivers now uncertain, momentum has weakened. The ongoing Supreme Court hearing on the validity of the tariff has added another layer of unease.
From a technical perspective, the SPX remains under pressure, trading below its 9-day and 21-day SMAs. The daily RSI sits at 47, signaling weak buying momentum. Immediate support is at the 50-day SMA around $6,678, also confirmed by ATR analysis, with the next support at the 100-day SMA near $6,479. On the upside, resistance is seen at $6,830, the highs from Wednesday.
- US Dollar IndexÂ
The U.S. dollar fell 0.46% on Thursday after soft labor market data raised expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in December. The dollar index is currently below 100 following a sharp drop in the previous session, pressured by signs that the U.S. job market is softening.
With official employment reports delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown, traders turned to private data — notably, the Challenger, Gray & Christmas report showing 153,000 job cuts in October, the highest for that month in 22 years. This fueled market bets on a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, with odds rising to about 67% from 62% a day earlier. However, Fed officials such as Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee urged caution given the lack of updated inflation data.
The dollar fell particularly against the euro, with the EUR/USD pair rising 0.48% on Thursday. This reflects broader uncertainty about U.S. economic momentum and monetary policy direction.
From a technical perspective, the dollar index is trading above the 9 and 21 SMA on the daily chart, still maintaining its bullish stance, although some caution can be observed. RSI on the daily chart has declined to 62, however, it still indicates buying momentum. On the 4-hour chart, a break above the key 100 level can push prices to the resistance of 100.2. A sustained move above this level can fuel bullish momentum and take the dollar to 100.8. Above this, the next resistance can be seen at 101.2. Immediate support is at 99.7, which coincides with the 31st October 2025 breakout, followed by 99.4.
- Â Crude Oil
WTI crude oil remained on track for its second straight weekly decline, closing 0.2% down, at $59.69 yesterday. In early Asian trade today, WTI has edged slightly higher, hovering around $60.26 (+1%).
Concerns about global oversupply continued to dampen market sentiment. Oil prices also slipped amidst worries about the economic impact of the prolonged U.S. government shutdown. EIA statistics showed an unexpected 5.2 million-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories, renewing fears of oversupply from increased imports and reduced refinery runs during maintenance season.
Geopolitical tensions, such as renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and new U.S. sanctions on Moscow’s oil firms, have provided only brief support to WTI prices. These factors are seen as temporary counterbalances to the prevailing bearish supply conditions.
From a technical standpoint, WTI remains confined within a range on the daily chart, with key resistance at $61.7, this week’s high, and support at $59, this week’s low. A break below this zone could open the door toward the next support near $57. Brent may find support at $62.75, yesterday’s low, and potential resistance at $65.20, the 50-day SMA level.
- Gold and Silver
Although gold remains range-bound between $3,886 and $4,046, is it trading close to the upper bound of this range after trimming recent losses. This was because companies in America announced 153,074 job cuts in October 2025, marking the steepest decline in over two decades and nearly triple the number observed in October 2024. AI has started to reshape industries and spark a wave of cost-cutting measures, which has contributed to the recent softening in the labour market. This has slightly bolstered the odds of further monetary easing in December, although uncertainty remains high. There is some divergence in the views of policymakers, with Chicago Fed President feeling uneasy about further rate cuts in the absence of official inflation stats during the government shutdown. On the other hand, Stephen Miran has been vocal in his calls for a larger 50 basis point rate cut.
Gold is on track for a modest weekly decline, which would mark its third straight week in negative territory. It is expected to consolidate in its recent trading range until further clarity or new catalysts emerge. The long-term drivers that propelled gold to its best yearly performance since 1979 remain in place and might eventually come back into play. But for now, data provided by private firms is influencing gold’s movement.
Gold is trading at $3,995, with strong 50-SMA support at $3,878. Gold would need to break out of the upper bound of its trading range at $4,046 and recapture the upward sloping trendline above $4,110 for its broader uptrend to gain traction.
The U.S. government has added silver to its list of 60 critical minerals, deeming these substances as vital for the U.S. economy and national security. If this results in tariffs on silver, it could spark considerable volatility in the metals market as America imports silver heavily to satisfy domestic demand. Silver is down over 10% from its peak at $48.40, with 50-SMA support at $46.32 on the day chart. It has immediate resistance at $49.46.
