U.S. Markets
U.S. equity markets continue to push higher, with the S&P 500 breaking out to fresh all-time highs as easing oil prices, softer bond yields, and growing optimism around a potential U.S.–Iran agreement continue to support risk sentiment. The SPX is now trading near 7,550, after successfully breaking above its previous all-time high zone near 7,500, confirming a bullish breakout from the rounding bottom pattern formed since mid-May.
The broader market tone remains constructive. Treasury yields eased through the previous session, helping equities extend gains despite elevated geopolitical uncertainty. Markets are increasingly focusing on the possibility of de-escalation in the Middle East rather than the risks of holding long exposure. Reports that Qatar is actively involved in facilitating discussions between the U.S. and Iran have improved sentiment, while oil prices, although still elevated, have cooled from recent highs. Brent crude remains near $99, while WTI trades around $94, easing concerns around an immediate inflation shock.
Corporate earnings and stock-specific moves also reflected strong risk appetite on Friday. AI-linked and technology names continued to lead gains, with strong moves seen across software, semiconductors, and cloud-related stocks. Qualcomm surged nearly 12%, while AMD, Arm, Zoom, Dell, HP, and Workday also posted strong gains following upbeat guidance, AI-driven demand optimism, and strong earnings updates. This continued leadership from technology and growth stocks is helping support the broader market despite elevated valuations.
U.S. markets are closed for the day, which could result in relatively lower liquidity and sharper intraday reactions across global markets if major geopolitical headlines emerge.
Technically, the breakout above the 7,500 zone is significant, as it confirms continuation of the broader uptrend. This level now acts as immediate support for the index. Additional support is seen near the 7,435 pivot zone, while on the upside, immediate resistance is placed near 7,550, followed by the next target around 7,608. As long as the index continues to hold above the previous breakout zone, the structure remains bullish, with momentum favouring buy-on-dips positioning.
Crude Oil
Crude oil is down about 4.5% today and is currently trading at $91.50.
From a fundamental standpoint, over the weekend, news emerged about Iran’s negotiations, stripping the commodity of a large portion of the geopolitical premium that had been supporting it. The US and Iran have drafted a memorandum to extend the ceasefire by 60 days as the two sides seek a permanent deal that would include demining and the reopening of the strait. However, it still remains unclear how key differences, including the fate of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, will be addressed. Iran’s Tasnim news agency said the draft agreement could still collapse because the US was obstructing some key clauses, including a demand that its assets be unfrozen. The decline in energy prices is expected to be limited. With these, Bloomberg reports that analysts expect “Oil has priced in relief, but not a durable resolution.”
From a technical standpoint, WTI has largely traded within the broader $80–$120 range, while recent price action has become increasingly compressed inside a triangle pattern. In fact, news of the ceasefire has pushed WTI to the lower end of the triangle range, suggesting volatility is building. A break below could put the bears in control, while a bounce could indicate a possible resurgence in the tensions. For today, the bias remains buy-on-dip as long as WTI holds above the key $87-$90 support.
U.S. Dollar Index
After a strong week of gains, the dollar index has declined by 0.3% following comments from senior US officials on Sunday, indicating that the US and Iran are close to an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Further, the US and Iran have drafted a memorandum of understanding that could extend the ceasefire by 60 days as they work toward a final deal to permanently end the conflict. This development has boosted investor risk appetite and will keep the dollar pressured in the near term. However, markets will await more clarity on the final deal, as we have seen Trump’s comments swing from saying a deal is imminent to saying there is no rush to make one. Markets are still pricing in a 41% probability of a rate hike by year’s end due to rising inflationary pressures from high oil prices. Moreover, as Kevin Warsh takes the helm at the Fed, bond investors are betting he’ll prioritise the central bank’s inflation-fighting credibility over Trump’s push for lower interest rates. He has also signalled his intent to shrink the Fed’s $6.8 trillion balance sheet, a move that supports the dollar. Further, leveraged funds bolstered their long dollar positions for the week through May 19, the first increase this month, according to CFTC data. They held about $10.5 billion in bullish bets, more than double the amount in the week through May 12, as the Dollar Index climbed almost 1% over the period. Looking ahead in the week, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report will also take centre stage on Thursday. Market participants will closely scrutinise the report to gauge the direction of the dollar index.
Technically, the index is trading at 99.05, above the 21-day SMA at 98.63. On a monthly timeframe, the index remains bullish, as it is holding the multi-year trendline support connecting the lows of 72.83, 89.53, and 97.63. On the daily timeframe, it has also held the 98.94 support level strongly since the start of today’s session. The index is consolidating, and a break above the immediate resistance of 99.31 will indicate continued bullishness. Conversely, a break below the 98.94 will indicate further downward pressure for the index, with 98.40 as the next visible support.
Gold & Silver
Gold witnessed a highly volatile session last week, forming a Doji candle on the weekly chart and closing 0.68% lower reflecting indecision in the market. However, the precious metal has started the new week on a strong note, currently trading 1.01% higher near $4,554 in early Asian trade, as dip buyers have once again stepped in aggressively after Friday’s sharp pullback.
Sentiment improved after reports suggested that the United States and Iran are moving closer toward a potential agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore smoother oil flows. This development triggered a sharp decline in crude oil prices with Brent crude falling more than 5%, easing fears that higher energy costs would fuel inflationary pressures and weigh on the global economy, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve may take a less aggressive stance on interest rates.
Technically, gold remains bullish for today as long as prices stay above Friday’s low near $4,492. Holding above this level could support another move higher. The next major support is at $4,377, which falls to the 200 Day SMA. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed near last week’s high at $4,589, followed by the 50 Day SMA resistance near $4,657. Silver is also showing strength, trading 2.91% higher near $77.87. Prices continue to hold above the rising trendline support, which keeps the short-term trend positive. Key support is seen near $74.52 on the trendline, while the next important resistance is placed near the 100 Day SMA at $81.
