Photo Credit : NCM
Residents across the UAE are being advised to prepare for a sharp change in weather conditions this week, as forecasters warn of a significant cold spell sweeping across the country.
According to the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM), a surface low-pressure system supported by an upper-level trough and a deep cold air mass will begin affecting the Emirates from Wednesday, March 4, through Thursday, March 5, 2026. However, the impact is expected to extend beyond these dates, with colder-than-usual conditions likely to persist into the weekend.
What is driving the cold wave?
Meteorologists say the shift is being triggered by a combination of atmospheric factors. A surface low is interacting with an upper trough, allowing a deep mass of cold air to push into the region.
Weather analyst Muhammed Sajjad KP, widely known as the “UAE Weatherman,” noted that Global Forecast System (GFS) temperature anomaly models indicate a pronounced cold surge moving across the Arabian Peninsula. This pattern is expected to draw well-below-normal temperatures into the UAE over the coming days.
Upper-level northwesterly winds are forecast to dominate throughout this week and into the next, reinforcing the cold air intrusion and keeping daytime temperatures noticeably below seasonal averages.
Rainfall expected across several areas
Cloud cover is set to increase nationwide, with rainfall forecast over scattered parts of the country between Wednesday and Thursday.
While many areas may experience light to moderate showers, heavier rainfall is more likely in the northern and eastern regions at times. The most active periods are expected overnight and during the early morning hours, particularly from Thursday into Friday night. Showers could continue in some areas through Saturday.
Authorities are urging motorists to exercise caution, especially during pre-dawn commutes when roads may be wet and visibility reduced.
Temperatures to drop sharply
Forecasters describe this as one of the more defined cold spells of the season. As northwesterly winds replace the warmer southeasterly flow currently in place, temperatures are expected to fall noticeably.
The coldest conditions are forecast during the late-night and early-morning hours on Thursday and Friday, with many residents likely to feel a marked chill compared to recent days.
Meteorologists also suggest that another cold surge could follow in the days ahead, indicating that the current system may be part of a broader atmospheric pattern influencing the region.
Strong winds and blowing dust
Wind conditions are expected to shift from southeasterly to northwesterly as the system intensifies. Winds will range from moderate to fresh, with occasional strong gusts capable of lifting dust and sand, particularly over open desert and inland areas.
Blowing dust may reduce horizontal visibility on highways and exposed roads. Motorists are advised to remain alert and adjust driving speed accordingly.
The arrival of northwesterly winds is considered a key indicator of the cold air mass settling over the country, bringing a sharper drop in temperatures.
Rough seas in the Gulf and Oman Sea
Marine conditions are also expected to deteriorate.
Seas in the Arabian Gulf are forecast to become rough from Tuesday night, with turbulent conditions continuing through Thursday. In the Oman Sea, wave activity will range from slight to moderate, with occasional rough spells possible.
Fishermen, boat operators and beachgoers are strongly encouraged to monitor official marine updates and avoid venturing into the water during rough conditions.
What to expect over the weekend
Although the core of the system is expected between March 4 and 5, unsettled weather may continue into the weekend. Cold temperatures, lingering showers in some areas and persistent northwesterly winds are likely to shape conditions across the country.
Residents planning outdoor activities are advised to stay updated with official forecasts, dress appropriately for cooler weather and drive carefully during periods of rain or reduced visibility.
As the cold air mass settles over the Emirates, authorities are urging the public to remain informed and take necessary precautions to stay safe during the changing weather conditions.
