When American voters handed Democrats control of Congress, the loudest market reaction came from New York. The more telling one may have come from the Gulf. As technology stocks on Wall Street lurched from euphoria to fright within days, equities in the United Arab Emirates kept their footing. Solid third-quarter earnings have given investors reason to stay put, and the MSCI UAE Index remains within the uptrend that has carried it from 2023 into 2026.
“In the UAE, positive Q3 earnings and the MSCI UAE Index’s ability to hold within its 2023–2026 uptrend support a cautiously constructive outlook,” says Razan Hilal, Market Analyst, CMT at FOREX.com. The threshold to watch, she argues, is the 20.00–20.60 zone. A close above it would strengthen the case for further gains and bring the index’s yearly and multi-decade highs back into view. Any easing of geopolitical tension and inflation could lift risk appetite across the wider region.
That is why Gulf investors are watching Washington so closely. The first reaction to the Democratic win was a rally, built on hopes that the new political balance would increase pressure for a negotiated settlement with Iran. A deal would ease fears of disruption to energy supplies, and with them worries about inflation and further interest-rate rises. For a region whose fortunes are tied to stability in its own waters, few outcomes matter more.
The relief did not last. Concerns that a Democratic Congress would tighten oversight of artificial intelligence and data-centre development triggered a sharp reversal, wiping out the earlier gains. In Thursday’s sell-off the Nasdaq fell by nearly 8% and the S&P 500 by more than 5%. Both indices sank to daily oversold conditions last seen in March 2026, when geopolitical sentiment was at a previous extreme.
The regulatory fog may yet lift. Given AI’s strategic importance, Ms Hilal reckons a compromise between a Democratic-controlled Congress and a Republican White House could help stabilise expectations around data-centre investment. For now, though, uncertainty over the rules remains a weight on prices. The new Congress does not take office until January 2027, leaving ample time for the debate, and the jitters, to run on.
Friday brought a further complication. America’s nonfarm payrolls report showed 165,000 jobs added, above expectations, while unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. The numbers point to an economy that remains resilient. They also keep alive expectations of a rate rise in December, which is hardly what a bruised market wanted to hear.
Technicians see some grounds for hope. Thursday’s lows held, and they now serve as the key support levels to watch. Oversold readings bring the possibility of a technical rebound into focus, but an early bounce does not confirm a sustained recovery. If those supports hold, Ms Hilal argues, the indices may have room to recover.
Oil is the hinge on which much turns. A credible agreement between America and Iran, accompanied by a sustained fall in crude prices, would ease inflationary pressure and damp expectations of further rate rises. Brent falling below $92 a barrel and WTI below $86 would reinforce that scenario. A renewed climb above $100, by contrast, would keep inflation and interest rates at the centre of investors’ minds.
The forces that would steady Wall Street, a calmer Gulf and cooler inflation, are the same ones that could give Emirati investors the push they need to break through the 20.00–20.60 ceiling. For now the UAE has done the harder thing: holding its ground while others lost theirs.
For more information about the latest global market developments and the UAE’s financial and economic updates, visit www.forex.com.
