- US MarketsÂ
The US equity markets witnessed a sharp rebound on Wednesday, with the SPX index jumping back above $6,900 intraday and closing 1.15% higher, while the NDX index closed 1.46% higher. Markets traded relatively flat during the Asian session on Thursday, with both indices trading just slightly higher.
The recovery came after US President Donald Trump backtracked on his strong stance on Greenland and said he would no longer impose tariffs on European nations that were set to begin in February. He indicated that a deal framework was formed, easing trade tensions that had grown throughout the week, reinforcing his view from a speech at Davos earlier in the day, in which he said he would not acquire Greenland by force. Markets reacted accordingly as the TACO trade took place, the VIX fell back sharply after rising above the 20 level, and US treasuries found some support. Attention would now shift to major economic reports scheduled for release today, including Q3 GDP estimates, the Core PCE Price Index, and weekly jobless claims, to set short-term sentiment.
From a technical perspective, the SPX index recovered above its 50-SMA on the daily chart after breaking below it on Tuesday. Yesterday’s daily chart showed a bullish engulfing candle on both the SPX and NDX indices, suggesting a reversal pattern. The rebound in the NDX index also coincided with the 100-day SMA, further suggesting a bullish reversal. For the SPX index, gains can potentially continue after $6,920 is breached, as the 9- and 21-day SMA levels lie there.
- US Dollar Index Â
DXY is currently up by about 0.02%.
From a fundamental stance, Trump said that he will not impose tariffs on Greenland. However, he said that the Panama Canal is still on the agenda. On the data front, the 20-year bond yields followed a similar pattern to the bills, clocking in higher than the previous auction. Looking ahead into the day, the PCE price index is expected to garner attention.
From a technical stance, DXY has bounced as mentioned yesterday. On the daily chart, the index has bounced from the support of a symmetrical triangle, with the lows of 17th September (96.22), 23rd December (97.85), and 30th December (97.94) supporting a bullish stance on the dollar for the day.
Looking at EURUSD, the currency pair dipped yesterday after testing the trendline resistance connecting the highs of 17th September (1.192), 16th December (1.181) and 24th December (1.180). However, the currency pair is finding support from the 21- and 50-Day EMAs at 1.167, suggesting a bullish outlook for the day. Note that a break below this level triggers
Another interesting pair is USDJPY; the currency pair has broken the trendline resistance formed by connecting the highs of 14th January (159.45), 20th January (158.60), and 21st January (158.25), supporting a bullish stance in the sessions ahead. Note that over the long term, on the weekly chart, the pair has successfully bounced after retesting the trendline resistance. The trendline has been formed by connecting the highs of 161.95 on 1 July 2024, 157.90 on 17 November 2025, and 157.75 on 15 December 2025.
- Crude OilÂ
WTI rose 1.96% yesterday, while Brent gained 1.81%, as geopolitical risks continued to support oil prices.
On the fundamental side, crude is being supported by supply disruptions in Kazakhstan. Output at the Tengiz and Karachaganak fields was halted after a fire damaged power generators. Production is expected to remain offline for 7–10 days, tightening near-term supply. In addition, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which handles around 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, has been disrupted by Ukrainian drone attacks. January loadings have fallen sharply from around 1.7 mbpd to 800,000–900,000 bpd. In the Middle East, risk premium remains intact. Donald Trump has not ruled out intervention if Iran resumes its nuclear program, keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated.
In the options market, total oil options volume is high, with calls outnumbering puts, pointing to a bullish bias. For both WTI and Brent, the 2-month 25-delta skew is higher, indicating that call premiums are more expensive than put premiums, again signalling bullish sentiment.
Technically, WTI remains bullish, trading above its 9-, 21-, 50- and 100-day SMAs. The next resistance is at $61.75, aligned with the 200-day SMA. A break above this could open the way toward $62.45. On the downside, initial support is seen at $59.48, yesterday’s opening level. RSI is rising and currently near 60, indicating strengthening momentum.
- Gold & SilverÂ
Gold is trading flat today, while silver increased by 1%.
Yesterday, US President Donald Trump pulled back his threat to impose tariffs on European nations, saying a framework for a future deal regarding Greenland had been reached. That seemed to suppress a significant geopolitical push.
The metal has rallied by more than 65% over the past year, driven predominantly by the destabilisation of the world’s geopolitical order and threats to the independence of the US central bank. However, that concern was revived this week after the Supreme Court indicated that it was uncomfortable with the White House’s ongoing attempts to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Any sign of the slightest violation could continue to dent faith in the US dollar and drive reserve managers into gold.
Banks gave the rally another boost by raising their year-end target to $5,400/oz, citing increased competition for supply from central banks and investors.
Meanwhile, global silver demand has surged, leading to shortages of small bars and coins as retail investors look to buy. Refineries focused on making large bars can’t keep up with demand for smaller products, leading to tighter supply.
Buy the dip behavior remains evident in trading, with tight supply and delays in small bars and coins, even though there was a sharp reversal yesterday. Buyers have since emerged quickly, supporting the view that pullbacks will be shallow.
Gold 4H has broken above its prior rising channel and is consolidating, with resistance in the $4,880–$4,927 zone and an upside extension target around 4,995–5,000. Initial support is $4,735, then $4,695 as trend-defining support, below which price could rotate toward $4,650.
Silver 4H is still in an uptrend, with key resistance at $95 and upside target at $98.51. The nearest supports are $92.17 and $89.69 at the prior breakout base.
