- US Markets
The SPX ended yesterday’s trading session down 0.16% at $6,818.87, as weakness in major tech stocks weighed on the index. SPX is trading lower by 0.60% in early Asian hours today.
A fall in Broadcom and other AI-related stocks dragged the Nasdaq 100 lower by 0.46% yesterday. The Dow Jones Index fell -41 points or 0.09 percent on Monday to close at 48,416 points. Tesla Inc. led gains among mega-cap stocks yesterday. Declining issues equalled advancers at a 1-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and on Nasdaq declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.76-to-1 ratio. This week’s job and inflation data will determine the fate of the year-end rally, as the numbers will put to rest debates about the current state of the US economy. For equities, either stronger labor market data or weaker inflation data would imply that last week’s broadening of the equity market, driven by a rotation into banks, industrials, and cyclicals, was a sign of economic strength. Treasury 10-year yields steadied around 4.17% after edging down on Monday amid bets the Fed will cut rates twice next year to support the jobs market even as inflation shows signs of stickiness. The probability for a rate hold at the next Fed meeting still stands at 75% which is in line with the Fed’s hawkish tone. A lower than expected reading will decrease these odds and make Fed’s path difficult for keeping inflation and unemployment under control. This would also put a pressure on the US Dollar which is trading flat in Tuesday’s Asian trading session.
SPX’s first major support comes in at the 21-SMA level of $6,787.51, with the next support at $6770.00. The resistance level is at $6879.47, and strong economic data today could trigger a new rally.
- Gold and Silver
Gold and Silver retreated slightly on Tuesday, predominantly driven by profit booking ahead of the combined jobs report for October and November, later today. Retail sales figures and preliminary manufacturing data are also due. Despite the pullback today, prices still hover near record highs for both precious metals. Any labour market slack in today’s job readings could increase the probability of rate cuts next year, lending support to gold and silver.
Gold is down 0.47% while silver slipped 1.57% to $63 per ounce. Analysts warn that silver’s valuations appear stretched relative to gold and highlighted potential impacts from U.S. tariff exemptions.
From a technical perspective, Gold is trading above 9 SMA and 21 SMA on the daily chart. RSI has slightly retreated from the overbought territory, but remains close to 68. This indicates ongoing bullish momentum. Immediate support is at $4,289 on the 1-hour chart, which coincides with the 21 SMA. Next support is at $4,256, which was the 12th December low. Immediate resistance is seen at $4,354, followed by all time high of $4,381.
Silver is also trading above the 9 and 21 SMA on the daily chart. RSI has slightly retreated from the overbought territory, but remains close to 67. This indicates ongoing bullish momentum for silver. Immediate support is at $61.9, which coincides with the 11th December breakout. This level is followed by the 50 SMA level of $60.91 on the 1-hour chart. Resistance is at all time high of $64.65. A break above this level can push prices to new record highs and strengthen the bullish move.
- U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index is trading flat around 98.25 in Tuesday’s Asian trading session and closed at 98.252 (-0.14%) on Monday.
The greenback is under pressure as weaker U.S. labor market indicators have built expectations that employment data, which is due today, could disappoint. Markets await delayed NFP data for October and November, as consensus forecasts indicate weaker numbers. Any upside surprise may, however, help lift the dollar temporarily.
The DXY’s weakness is further underpinned by developments in Japan, where yen has been supported by higher expectations of a rate hike by the BoJ. USDJPY is slipping toward 155.00, and a break below the December low of 154.35 could put further pressure on the dollar index. Meanwhile, the EURUSD pair remains steady near multi-week highs as traders await central bank guidance, further limiting attempts to recover the dollar.
From a technical standpoint, DXY retains a slightly bearish bias, as it is trading below all key moving averages. Resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of 98.477, while support lies at 98.013, a previously tested level. EURUSD is trading flat today, hovering around 1.175. Resistance for the pair is seen at 1.179, while support lies at 1.172.
- Crude Oil
Oil slipped on Tuesday as signs of progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine raised hopes that some sanctions on Russian oil exports may eventually be lifted, adding supply to an already well stocked market.
Brent broke below $60, and WTI hit $56.25 as geopolitical tensions eased after the U.S. said it would support NATO security guarantees for Kyiv, and negotiators for the European side reported progress, though territorial issues remained unresolved. Chinese economic data and slowing factory output and soft retail sales further raised demand concerns in the world’s top oil importer due in part to increased penetration of electric vehicles.
On the 4-hour charts and short-term timeframes, both WTI and Brent are forming lower lows and lower highs. Today’s candles have very small bodies near the lows, indicating that the bearish pressure remains but the momentum is slowing as price drifts sideways above key support.
Brent is consolidated just below $60.00, and a decisive 4H close below this level would open up the way for testing support near $58.50–5$9.00 area, with a potential resistance at $60.70–$61.50.
For WTI, immediate support is at $55.84, and a break below $55.40 could open up a move toward $55.00; intraday resistance is at $57.00 and then $57.50, corresponding to previous consolidation and minor swing highs.
