Developments such as vessel rerouting in the Red Sea and brief LNG shipment adjustments in June 2025 underscore the high degree of connectivity within Gulf supply chains. Ensuring continuity has become a strategic priority for regional stakeholders, with Qatar Energy’s recent pause in LNG shipments through Hormuz underscoring the stakes for commerce across the Gulf. To support long-term planning, Arthur D. Little (ADL) has completed resilience simulations that evaluate how Gulf logistics networks could perform under disruption scenarios, quantifying potential cost impacts and identifying viable rerouting options.
With more than 85 percent of Gulf nations’ food and consumer-goods imports and nearly 20 percent of global oil exports moving through strategic sea lanes, enhancing supply-chain continuity is increasingly important. Although the region has invested in world-class port infrastructure—from Jebel Ali and Khalifa Port to Sohar, Hamad, Ras Tanura and beyond—emerging pressures reinforce the need for planning frameworks that prioritise adaptability alongside capacity.
ADL’s simulation model assesses national and regional resilience across several scenarios. Applied to Saudi Arabia as a case study, it explores the impact of a temporary Strait of Hormuz closure on trade flows, costs and rerouting options. In this scenario, total logistics costs could rise by up to USD 10 to 12 billion, driven by diverted routes and market-based pricing shifts. Container logistics costs are estimated to increase by about 75 percent, while liquid-bulk costs could climb by as much as 170 percent.
The analysis shows that dry bulk and general cargo can be redirected through ports in Oman, Jordan and Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast, but liquid bulk—primarily crude oil—faces tighter constraints. Based on current capacity, as much as 350 million tonnes of crude, valued at roughly USD 190 billion, could be delayed or constrained in reaching export markets.
Paolo Carlomagno, Partner at Arthur D. Little commented “With trade corridors under increasing scrutiny worldwide, investing in resilience safeguards supply chains and creates long-term value. Scenario modelling helps governments and logistics operators assess alternatives and design infrastructure that performs reliably under a range of conditions.”
These simulations are planning aids, not forecasts. They highlight opportunities to strengthen redundancy, improve information flow and build greater flexibility into Gulf logistics frameworks.
ADL’s work points to three areas where deeper development can add value: expanding scenario-based modelling capabilities, enhancing regional protocols for emergency coordination and cargo prioritisation, and integrating resilience considerations into national infrastructure strategies from the outset.
“Building resilience into national logistics is not about anticipating crisis, but about designing systems that remain reliable in an unpredictable world,” said Giorgio Antongiovanni, Principal at Arthur D. Little Middle East.
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