In today’s session, metal prices increased by nearly 1% following the United States’ cessation of a two-week strike against Iran. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic indicated it would refrain from retaliatory action and engaged in discussions with Oman to address the critical matter of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the metal remains in a broader downtrend, which outweighs the short-term optimism. This is because inflationary concerns still persist, increasing the likelihood of rate hikes. Market participants will closely track the FOMC meeting this Wednesday as renewed tensions in the Middle East have triggered a rise in energy costs. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the current rates being maintained is at 70% after Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire. However, markets are still pricing an 88% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year. This suggests that the metal continues to remain under pressure until inflation concerns linger.
Technically, the metal is trading at $4,105 and has mostly stayed within a range over the past month, between $ 3,945 and $4,160. The daily 14-period RSI has also not crossed the 50 level since April, indicating a lack of positive momentum. A decisive breakout and close above $ 4,160 would suggest increasing bullish momentum. Otherwise, it may test its recent support at $4022, followed by $3,945. It also respects a long-term downward trendline connecting the highs of $5,420, $4,774, and $4,130, respectively.
Similarly, Silver is also trading at $59.7 and has remained range-bound over the past month between $55.60 and $63.25. A breakout and close above the $63.25 level would indicate bullish momentum picking up in the metal. Otherwise, it may test the support at $57.14, followed by the range low at $55.6.
Crude Oil
Oil sank as the US and Iran paused strikes, easing tensions in the five-month-old conflict, even as the Houthis claimed attacks against Saudi targets and ship-tracking suggested flows remained constrained.
Brent tumbled by more than 7% this morning and US oil marker West Texas Intermediate also declined, along with European natural gas. Global benchmark Brent has still surged by around 18% this month, as hostilities in the Middle East spread to the Red Sea, with the Iran-backed Houthis threatening a blockade of Saudi Arabian ports. The Houthi militants in Yemen said they had struck facilities linked to Saudi Aramco in the Red Sea port towns of Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday, though neither Riyadh nor the state-owned producer confirmed the claim. The conflict has stoked concerns of an inflationary shock as stockpiles fall and product prices jump. Transits of key chokepoints are still well below normal, suggesting shipowners remain cautious. In the Strait of Hormuz, traffic was sparse, with just eight commodity vessels — mostly smaller products tankers and bulk carriers — crossing on Sunday.Despite the halts, the situation remains extremely fragile and further escalation can once again cause a spike in prices.
Brent is currently trading at $86.94 and remains under clear intraday selling pressure this session. As long as price stays below 88.78, the near-term bias favors more downside, with 87.00 the immediate line to watch as support. The 87.00 level looks like strong support, having previously acted as a resistance point before flipping to support. A break below 87.00 may open the path to the next support band at 84.81–83.02. On the upside, a recovery back above resistance at 90.00 would be needed to shift the daily tone back to neutral or bullish.
WTI is trading similarly to Brent. In the early session, WTI tried to break past its 21-day SMA at $85.44 but was unable to clear that resistance point. It is currently supported by its 50-day SMA at $83.44. Immediate support sits at $82.00, another prior resistance level that has since turned into support. A break below this point may push WTI toward $80.00. On the upside, a break above the 21-day SMA at $85.44 could push WTI toward $87.00.
U.S. Markets
U.S. stock futures rebounded today, with S&P 500 futures up 0.96% and Nasdaq 100 futures gaining 1.42%, as easing tensions in the Middle East improved risk sentiment after both indices posted their second consecutive weekly decline. Last week, the S&P 500 fell 0.64%, while the Nasdaq 100 lost 1.56%.
Investor sentiment improved after the U.S. and Iran paused hostilities over the weekend, allowing oil prices to retreat from above $100 per barrel. The pullback eased immediate inflation concerns and reinforced the view that elevated oil prices may encourage both sides to avoid further escalation, reducing fears of a prolonged supply shock.
Despite the stronger start to the week, investors face a busy and potentially market-defining few days. Attention will centre on earnings from Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Meta, with markets looking for reassurance that heavy AI-related capital expenditure will translate into stronger future earnings. Alphabet’s recent results have already heightened concerns that rising investment across the AI ecosystem may not generate returns quickly enough to justify current valuations. Those concerns have been particularly evident across the semiconductor sector. Weakness in memory stocks, intensifying competition from Chinese manufacturers and growing questions over hyperscaler spending have weighed on AI supply chain names.
Alongside earnings, markets will closely watch the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan policy meetings, as well as key economic releases including U.S. second-quarter GDP, Core PCE inflation, eurozone CPI and Chinese PMI data. While easing geopolitical tensions have provided short-term relief, the combination of central bank decisions, major technology earnings and persistent questions around AI profitability is likely to drive market direction in the week ahead.
Technically, SPX continues to hold above 7,430, a level that has acted as an important support area in recent sessions. A move lower could see the index test secondary support at 7,395, where an ascending trendline continues to underpin the broader uptrend. On the upside, resistance is seen at 7,526, corresponding to the high of the doji candle formed on July 22. A break above this level would signal renewed bullish momentum.
US Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) closed nearly flat in Friday’s session with a 0.03% gain, closing out the last week nearly 0.71% higher near the 101.46 level. However, Monday’s Asian session is seeing some weakness with the index trading about 0.30% lower, leading the EURUSD pair to gain 0.37%.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the dollar had been gaining support from expectations of a hawkish Fed as geopolitical tensions remained high, leading to higher inflation expectations due to rising oil prices. This has led to odds of a 25-bps rate hike by the Fed in its next meeting rising from 16% a week ago to 30.5%, contributing to the dollar’s rise. Odds for rate hikes by the end of the year now sit evenly around 36% for a 25 and 50 bps increase, adding tailwinds for the greenback. However, the currency is giving up some of its last week’s gains as oil prices retreated following a pause in hostilities between the US and Iran over the weekend, easing concerns over supply disruptions and inflation. This week’s FOMC meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, will be a key focus point for investors, closely gauging the tone of Warsh’s speech for hawkish or Dovish guidance.
From a technical standpoint, the dollar index gave a breakout from a bull flag pattern on the daily chart on 23rd July, pointing towards further bullishness. The breakout level near 101.120 is being retested now, along with a support being taken near the 9-day EMA around 101.16. The 21-day EMA near 100.98 could be the next potential support. Meanwhile, the EURUSD shows an inverse pattern, with a nearly complete bear flag on the daily chart being retested near current levels, indicating a bearish market structure for the short term.
