The S&P 500 trades near $7,657 and the Nasdaq 100 near $30,596, both pulling back despite Micron’s blowout results and Alphabet’s Gemini 4 Argon rollout, as the rally shows signs of narrowing rather than broadening. Micron’s revenue beat ($54.23bn vs $51.49bn est.) and strong guidance failed to trigger a sustained follow-through, with shares whipsawing — a sign the street is growing wary of a semiconductor profit bubble rather than celebrating the print. The divergence within US equities is stark: the Nasdaq 100 gained 3.2% in September while the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Dow lost 4.3%, and the Russell 2000 dropped 5%. The equal-weight S&P posted its worst quarter since 2024, confirming deteriorating breadth beneath the mega-cap tech surface. The dollar continues to climb, hitting a two-month high, while the yen weakens further on fading BOJ hike bets, a firmer dollar remaining a headwind for risk assets broadly. US 10-year yields hold near 5.27%, still elevated enough to cap valuations, with the 30-year eyeing the 6% threshold. A widening gap between struggling US bank fundamentals and resilient Japanese and Chinese financials highlights emerging structural risk, with agentic-AI disruption threatening consumer-banking profitability, while Korea’s listlessness despite strong memory fundamentals signals investors are growing cautious on crowded semiconductor positioning, a warning sign for the broader AI trade.
On the technical side, the S&P 500 remains capped within a descending triangle, with resistance at the trendline near $7,730–7,755 and horizontal support at $7,659, then $7,588. The daily RSI sits below 50 near 42–45, confirming weak momentum, and a break below $7,659 would expose $7,588, then the triangle apex near $7,625–7,600; only a close back above $7,755 would challenge the bearish structure. The Nasdaq 100 has retreated sharply from resistance at $30,810 after an exhaustion spike, now consolidating near $30,596, with the 4H RSI cooling from the overbought 70s zone toward 53, signalling fading upside momentum. Support lies at $30,400, then $30,200, with a break below exposing the rising trendline near $30,000, while resistance at $30,810 remains a firm cap. The bias stays bearish to range-bound for both indices while price trades below their respective resistance levels, with narrowing breadth and a firmer dollar reinforcing downside risk.
US Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) held its strength on Wednesday, closing just 0.08% higher at 101.46 but only after touching a low of 101.02 intraday. EUR/USD consequently fell 0.10%. Momentum continued in the Asian session on Thursday, with the dollar up 0.16% near 101.61 to a two-month high, while EUR/USD traded 0.11% lower.
The dollar seems to be rising despite briefly pulling back yesterday on lower-than-expected Core PCE data, which came in at 3% rather than the 3.3% forecast. This raised the odds of rates remaining stable at the October meeting to 62.4%, up from 49.1% a day ago and 31.4% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Even after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed signs of cooling, the bullish dollar story remained in play after US Treasury yields hit multiyear highs again. The 10-year US Treasury yield has now hit 5.34%, levels last seen in 2002, and the 30-year yield has risen similarly to around 5.68%. This underscores the dollar’s role as a strong portfolio diversifier during times of risk aversion, given the elevated energy prices. A surge in euro zone inflation underscored the same threat that higher energy prices continue to pose to the global economy. Investors will now shift focus to the Nonfarm payrolls report scheduled for Friday to gauge the Fed’s next policy move that could impact the dollar’s short-term direction.
Technically, the dollar index respected the breakout and retest of a bull-flag pattern on the 4-hour chart, explaining yesterday’s move. A cooling in the RSI on the same timeframe in intraday trading left room for further moves before it hit overbought territory again. Prices have broken above the 29th September high of 101.61 today, suggesting a market structure tilted toward the upside. The 24th June highs near 101.80 would need to be cleared before a further upmove can be seen. Meanwhile, EUR/USD appears to have broken support around the 1.1324 level below the 24th June lows, suggesting weak market structure for now as the pair trades near levels last seen in May 2025.
Crude Oil
Oil has been alternating between gains and losses, as traders looked for further signals about Middle Eastern flows. Today both WTI and Brent are up 1.6% after rising in yesterday’s session as well.
Crude rose for a third month in September, as Washington and Tehran failed to make headway toward a lasting peace agreement that would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said at the White House that the US has total control of the waterway and will have an answer to Iran shortly.
For WTI, the spread between its two nearest contracts has narrowed, suggesting that near-term conditions have become less tight. The gap was less than $2 a barrel in backwardation on Thursday, compared with $4.68 two weeks ago.
Reports of increased flows through Hormuz look directionally correct, even if the exact volumes are difficult to verify. An estimated 23 million barrels a day of oil left the Middle East in the last week — both out of Hormuz and through other export routes like the Red Sea. That’s in line with last year’s average. Gasoline inventories on the other hand are at the smallest level on record.
From a technical perspective, Brent is trading above the 9 and 21 EMA at $103, while WTI is looking to capture both these short term moving averages and is trading near $95. Daily RSI is ticking up near the 50s. Today, Oil presents just a slightly bullish bias.
For WTI, on the 4-hour chart, the current $95 level remains a strong resistance. A break above this level can push prices to the $97 level which is the top of the downward trendline connecting 15th and 28th September. A break above these levels can push prices to $100. Immediate support is at $91, followed by $89.
For Brent, the immediate target remains at $105 level, which is the top of the trendline joining the highs of 14th, 15th, and 24th September. A break above these levels can push prices to $107. On the downside, support is seen at $100 and then at $97.
Gold and Silver
Gold ended September down by 6.45% as elevated Treasury yields and the prospect of further rate hikes after the last quarter-point increase created headwinds. Nonetheless, gold closed above its upward-sloping trendline support at $4,121 and is currently up 0.68% on the first trading day of October at $4,189.
Silver ended September down by over 9% and is currently up 0.92% at $61.02 – close to its lowest levels in nearly two months. The precious metal has been consolidating in a very narrow range between $59.96 and $61.72 over the past three trading sessions. A tempering in October’s rate hike expectations is providing a near-term floor to silver at $60, although it remains in a clear bearish trend overall. The gold/silver ratio is at around 69, and an increase to 70 could push silver lower. On the 4-hour chart, silver is continuing its pattern of lower-highs and lower-lows. A push above $62 could offer the first sign of recovery, though the major test lies in the $63–$64.50 overhead resistance zone. Should $62 hold as ceiling, immediate support could be found around the $60 psychological mark, followed by $58 and key structural support at $55–$56 (late-July lows).
