US Markets
SPX futures are up 0.23% this morning, and NDX futures are up 0.16% this morning.
We start the week with a few important datasets that will guide the market. Around 70% of SPX companies are said to report earnings in October. We start the earnings season this week with big Banks such as JPM and Goldman reporting earnings this week, and with most of the hyperscalers out in the last week of October, the exception being TSMC, which reports on Thursday. The main event this week is Wednesday’s US inflation report. Higher energy costs are expected to lift overall inflation to 3.7%, but underlying (core) inflation, which strips out food and energy, is forecast at a more comfortable 2.5%. Markets currently see only a small chance (about 18%) that the Fed raises rates this month. A stronger-than-expected reading could therefore move markets sharply.
We see near-term downside risks for the S&P 500, driven primarily by oil. Crude is lower this morning (WTI -0.77%, Brent -0.32%), but the dip looks fragile. Saturday’s deadly attack on Riyadh’s main airport signals a widening Gulf conflict, and President Trump has said he may reconsider strikes on Iran despite earlier ruling them out before the midterms. Meanwhile, the case for lower oil rests largely on headlines rather than supply: Russia’s pledged 300,000 tonnes of diesel equals roughly 2.2 million barrels by our estimate, less than one day of US consumption. If crude climbs again, it would add to inflation pressure ahead of Wednesday’s CPI and keep Treasury yields near multi-decade highs, likely limiting further upside for equities.
Hence, strong earnings expectations may cushion dips, but oil and yields cap the upside.
The S&P 500 faces immediate resistance at 7,850, the record high set on 6 October. On the four-hour chart, the index has been grinding higher since Friday, trying to retest this level but so far failing to break through. On the downside, the Fibonacci retracement drawn from the 5 October low to the 6 October high puts first support at 7,776 (the 50% level). A break below this would expose 7,759, the 61.8% retracement, which we see as the key level for the near-term uptrend. On the upside, a sustained break above 7,850 would open the way toward 7,875, the 100% trend-based Fibonacci extension measured from the 5 October low, the 6 October high and the subsequent 7,730 low.
Gold & Silver
Gold is trading 0.24% lower at $4,185/oz at the time of writing, retreating slightly after gaining 1.25% last week. The metal remains under pressure as traders await key US economic data that could strengthen expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
The US CPI report on Wednesday, followed by PPI and retail sales data on Thursday, will be key in shaping interest rate expectations. Following September’s 25 basis point rate hike, markets are pricing in an 18% probability of another hike in October and an 84% probability by December, according to the CME Fed Watch tool. Higher interest rates could strengthen the US dollar and Treasury yields, making gold less attractive to investors as it does not offer interest income.
Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict has pushed up living costs and weakened consumer sentiment. The UN expects global economic growth to slow to 2.6% in 2026 from 2.9% in 2025. Slower growth could weigh on gold by reducing jewellery and investment demand, while the resulting energy-driven inflation may encourage central banks to maintain higher interest rates, adding further pressure on prices.
Technically, the outlook for Gold remains bearish in today’s session. Immediate support is at $4,129, near trendline support, followed by $4,105 at the horizontal support base and $4,066, which marks last week’s low. On the upside, immediate resistance is at today’s session high of $4,217, followed by the next resistance at $4,253. Silver is trading at $60.81 at the time of writing. Immediate support is at $58.51, corresponding to last week’s low, while resistance is at $62.
Gold prices in the UAE today are as follows:
24 Carat – AED 505.50
22 Carat – AED 468.00
21 Carat – AED 448.75
18 Carat – AED 384.75
Crude Oil
Oil declined at the start of the week as traders weighed resilient Middle East flows against rising regional tensions and a US claim that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to a so-called energy ceasefire.
Brent is down 0.3%, trading near 107, and WTI is down 0.77%, near $92. On Sunday, Saudi Arabia’s main airport was targeted again while another tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this, crude exports from the Persian Gulf continue to flow through the waterway at rates equal to 98% of pre-war levels. Exports have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels a day.
Traders are also cautiously assessing President Donald Trump’s assertion that an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine was effective immediately. Last week, Trump said he was working with President Vladimir Putin to release Russian diesel to the market, drawing bipartisan criticism in the US. Prices for the fuel have surged worldwide, sparking frustration among American voters ahead of November’s midterm elections. While European diesel futures tumbled as much as 8.3% on Monday, traders have questioned the long-term impact on Russia’s additional exports. Moscow said it will ship 500,000 tons after lifting a partial export ban, which is a fraction of the 28.6 million tons it delivered last year.
From a technical perspective, oil presents a slightly bullish bias for the day. WTI is trading below the 9 and 21 EMA on the daily chart; however, RSI is at 50, which suggests building momentum. Brent is trading above the 9 and 21 EMA on the daily chart with RSI at 57.
On the 4-hour chart, WTI is retesting the trendline breakout joining highs of 15th and 28th Sep and 8th Oct. It remains above the key level of $91.5 which is the confluence between 100% fib extension and 61.8% fib retracement. A break below this level can push prices to $90 levels. On the upside, WTI could test the $93 level, followed by the $96 levels. On the 4-hour chart, Brent has immediate support at $104 with an upside at $108.
US Dollar Index
The dollar index trades near 102.17, easing slightly at the start of the week but holding close to its highest levels in months. Speculators have rebuilt dollar longs at the largest three-week pace on record in CFTC data since France’s political and fiscal turmoil erupted last month. With the euro under pressure from the French crisis, investors appear reluctant to bet against the dollar.
The dollar continues to draw support from the Iran war and the AI-driven investment boom, while fresh geopolitical risk keeps haven demand alive after weekend attacks on Riyadh’s main airport. Brent crude climbed above $108, before retreating and the dollar softened slightly alongside oil as investors looked past the latest strikes and reports of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire.
This week’s US CPI print is the key catalyst, with fuel costs expected to lift headline inflation, which could reinforce hawkish Fed expectations and the dollar’s rate advantage.
On the chart, the index is trading near the upper boundary of its rising channel on the 4H chart, which has contained price action since February 2026. Resistance sits at 102.559. Support lies at 101.89. A break above 102.55 would signal a breakout from the channel and open the way toward 103.00–103.50, while a failure at the upper boundary risks a pullback toward the channel midline near 100.60.
EUR/USD trades near 1.120, compressing inside a symmetrical triangle on the 4H chart, bounded by the descending trendline from the October 1 high and rising support from the October 5 low. Trendline resistance sits near 1.1220–1.1230, with 1.1277 (the October 6 high) above that. Support comes in at the triangle base near 1.1185, then 1.1161.
