WTI fell 1.2% toward $94.8 per barrel while Brent is down around 2% to 106.2 on Thursday. This likely reflects a technical correction and profit-taking after five consecutive sessions of gains.Investors also assessed reports that the US is considering relaxing sanctions on so-called shadow fleet vessels that have transported oil and petroleum products from countries such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela, as part of efforts to ease record-high global freight rates. Iranian attacks on oil tankers have added a considerable risk premium to crude prices and sent the cost of hiring vessels surging around the world.
However, supply concerns remained elevated after a container ship sank in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, while Iran-backed Houthi forces continued missile and drone attacks across Saudi Arabia. Russia also accused Ukraine of attacking two oil refineries on Wednesday, including the 400,000-barrel-per-day Ryazan facility, breaching the energy ceasefire announced by Donald Trump.
From a technical perspective, oil presents a bearish bias for the day. On the 1-hour chart, key resistance remains at the $95.3 level. If prices break out from here, then the next resistance is at the $96.3 level. On the downside, prices can test the 93.5 level and a break below this point can send prices to $92. On the 1-hour chart, Brent has immediate resistance at the current levels and prices can fall to the $104 level. On the upside, a break above 108 can establish bullish momentum.
Gold & Silver
Gold declined 1.34% in the previous session following stronger-than-expected US inflation data but is recovering today, trading 0.90% higher at $4,142/oz at the time of writing. The metal has bounced back from the key support level of $4,100/oz, which remains crucial for its near-term outlook. As long as prices hold above this level, the bullish bias remains intact.
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 3.7% year-on-year in September, its highest level in four months and above market expectations of 3.6%, largely driven by rising gasoline prices. Core CPI also increased to 2.6%, exceeding the forecast of 2.5%. The hotter inflation reading has strengthened expectations of tighter monetary policy, with markets now pricing in a 32% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month, up from 22% before the data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Although gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates tend to weigh on demand for the non-yielding metal by increasing the opportunity cost of holding it.
Looking ahead, markets will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data due later today for further clues on inflationary pressures and the strength of consumer demand. Stronger-than-expected readings could reinforce rate-hike expectations and renew selling pressure on gold. For now, the recovery from $4,100/oz offers near-term support, but the sustainability of the rebound will depend on incoming US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Technically, Gold’s immediate support is at $4,100, the current session’s low, followed by key support at $4,066. On the upside, immediate resistance is at $4,217, the current week’s high, followed by the next resistance at $4,253. Meanwhile, Silver is trading 1.42% higher at $56.42. Immediate support is at $55, the previous session’s low, while resistance stands at $59, which is also the last session’s high.
US Markets
SPX fell 1.16% yesterday to around 7,716, and SPX futures are down 0.28% at the time of writing, pointing to 7693. Meanwhile, NDX fell 2.09% to 29,931 as a hotter-than-expected inflation report pushed up rate-hike bets and deepened the tech sell-off. The rout has spread across Asia this morning: South Korea’s Kospi fell about 8%, triggering a circuit breaker, and Japan’s Nikkei dropped about 5%. TSMC’s sixth straight record quarter, with net profit up 68.7%, failed to stop its shares from falling 2%.
Yesterday’s September CPI shifted the Fed’s outlook. Headline inflation rose to 3.7%, above the 3.6% forecast, but the bigger surprise was core inflation, which rose 0.3% on the month for the second straight month (2.6% annually), versus expectations of 0.2%. The pressure is broadening beyond fuel: core goods prices rose at their fastest pace since January 2025. Markets now price a 37–47% chance of a Fed hike this month, up from about 22% before the data, and a December hike looks almost certain. Today brings US producer prices (PPI) and retail sales at 16:30 GST. PPI is expected to rise 0.5% (core +0.3%), while retail sales are forecast to slow to +0.3% from +1.2%. A second hot inflation print would likely push October hike odds above 50%, while weak retail sales would raise new questions about consumer resilience.
As per options data, 7,700 remains the key downside risk pivot. A sustained break below that level could shift dealer positioning into negative gamma, amplifying selling pressure. On the upside, 7,825 represents important near-term resistance.
Technically, SPX faces its next support at 7652, based on the trend extension at 1 connecting the high of 23rd September, low of 1st October, and high of 14th October. A break below that support; the next support lies at 7591. We see multiple trendline extensions converging here, which could serve as strong support. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at 7778, as tested at multiple times previously. The RSI plunged from 59.44 to 46 within a day highlighting the bearish bias in the market.
The dollar index trades near 102.16, slipping from an 18-month peak as a sharp drop in Treasury yields unwound most of the gains that followed Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected CPI print. Officials, including Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, signalled that the central bank could wait for a clearer picture before the October 27–28 meeting. The meeting’s proximity to the midterm elections is also seen as a reason markets are reluctant to price October more aggressively.Today’s PPI and retail sales data, along with remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok, are the next catalysts. A strong PPI print could quickly revive hike bets. With Fed tightening expectations still elevated, the more likely path is consolidation rather than a reversal of the broader uptrend, unless the slide in yields extends.
Meanwhile, the yen has gained after BOJ board member Koeda said the neutral rate sits considerably above 1%.
Technically, resistance sits at 102.55 and 102.92, corresponding to yesterday’s highs. Support lies at 101.75 and 101.31.
EUR/USD trades near 1.120, having broken above its falling wedge on the 4H chart. Holding this level would confirm the breakout and open the way toward 1.1245. And a drop back below 1.118 would negate the breakout and expose 1.1150.
