The S&P 500 Index closed higher for a third day on Wednesday as solid earnings from SpaceX and Super Micro Computer Inc. bolstered bullish views of the artificial-intelligence trade. The  index advanced 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 Index gained 1.1% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, known as the SOX, added 2.0%.
Meta released blockbuster earnings for Q3 with revenues up 26% YoY and a beat on earnings expectations as well. The company hit major milestones this quarter toward delivering personal superintelligence for everyone, including launching Muse and Muse Wonder, their first frontier model. The initial success of the Muse AI personal assistant tool that debuted in September helped Meta end September with its best month on Wall Street since 2022.
Today, US stock futures declined after oil surged on fresh Middle East tensions while the latest batch of Big Tech earnings painted a mixed picture on the artificial intelligence boom. Worries over the path for Federal Reserve rates have weighed on the market in recent weeks. Jobs data due Thursday will help the central bank get a clearer read on the health of the economy.
From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 index presents a cautiously bullish bias for the day. On the 1-hour chart, RSI is deeply oversold, and we may see some bounce back from the current levels of $7,681. The key support remains near $7,662, a fall below this level can push prices to the 16th October low of $7,635. On the upside, the immediate target is at $7,739 (200 EMA), followed by $7,763, the 21 Oct high.
US Dollar Index
In yesterday’s session, the dollar was marginally down and fell almost 0.24% today as Treasury yields retreated. This was mainly because investors sought shelter in havens like Treasuries and the Japanese yen after US stocks stumbled on renewed concerns about the artificial intelligence trade. However, the broader outlook still favours the US dollar as long as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist and oil keeps rising. Moreover, if re-escalation concerns return, inflation risks could put renewed pressure on global yields. According to the CME Fedwatch, the markets are pricing in roughly an 84–88% chance of rates staying unchanged, though a hike remains fully priced for December, followed by nearly two more next year. A major risk to the bullish thesis is a peace deal and the beginning of US-Iran negotiations.
Technically, the dollar index is trading at 101.56 and has broken below the critical 101.6 level. However, it remains to be seen whether it can reclaim it, which could signal a failed breakdown. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 5-period RSI remains oversold, and a bullish hammer candlestick is being formed. This suggests a bounce and a possible recovery of 101.6. If the dollar fails to reclaim 101.6, its next support is at 101.2, and the bearish thesis will be confirmed.
The EURUSD pair is trading at 1.124 and is marginally up in today’s session. A break below immediate support at 1.1203 would signal further bearishness, with the next support observed at 1.1189. This level also roughly aligns with the 50% retracement from the 1.111 low to the 1.127 high. Conversely, a break above the 1.127 resistance would be bullish for the pair.
Crude Oil
WTI crude oil is up 2.32% at the time of writing, trading at $101.53 per barrel, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East revive concerns over potential supply disruptions. Renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including a drone strike on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field, alongside the US decision to withdraw some diplomatic personnel and their families from Saudi Arabia, have heightened market uncertainty. Speculation surrounding potential US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s reported attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz are further supporting prices by increasing the geopolitical risk premium.
However, recovering supply flows are limiting the upside. Tanker-tracking data indicate that crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to pre-conflict levels, while Saudi Arabia’s crude exports increased 7.9% in August, reaching their highest level since March. Rising shipments and additional supply routes are helping ease immediate supply concerns. Nevertheless, elevated freight rates in the Persian Gulf and the risk of further military escalation continue to underpin oil prices, keeping the market highly sensitive to developments across the region.
For intraday trading, a short position may be considered at the key resistance level of $102.71. The next resistance lies at $103.38. Immediate support lies at the current session low of $99.37, followed by further support at $96.95, which marks the current week’s low. Brent is currently trading at 108.64, up 2.21%. Immediate resistance is at 114.47, and support is at 106.45 (current session low).
Gold & Silver
Precious metals were largely flat on Wednesday, with gold closing 0.38% up and silver closing 0.05% down. Both metals faced pressure in the Asian session on Thursday, retreating to weekly lows, with gold down 1.01% and silver trading 3.22% lower.
Gold was under pressure as a flare-up in Middle East hostilities raised inflation risks ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting to decide on the path for interest rates. Attacks in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns over the impact on energy flows from the region, and the US ordered some embassy personnel and family members to leave the kingdom. WTI crude oil consequently crossed above $101, while Brent is above $113, raising the possibility that the Fed may need to adjust monetary policy to contain prices, which does not bode well for non-yielding metals. Traders largely expect another rate hike at the December meeting, with odds around 74% per the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the total known gold ETF holdings have risen from 101.46 million ounces to 101.55 million ounces yesterday, adding to the divergence between prices and ETF demand. This poses a risk in a market where a gradual fall in gold prices could trigger a deeper selloff once inflows reverse.
Technically, Gold prices are now testing the $4080 level, which was providing near-term support from a trendline connecting the lows of 30th June, 17th July, 7th October, and 14th October on the daily chart. A decisive break below the 7th October lows near $4066 could mark another breakdown of recent low support and trigger a further sell-off. Meanwhile, silver can find immediate support near the $55.43 level from the 14th October lows; a decisive break below could trigger a sell-off.
