COT Report: Commodity buying extends to fourth week, driven by crude, gas, and gold – Saxo Bank MENA

Forex:

In forex, speculators responded to emerging USD weakness by turning net sellers of the greenback for the first time in seven weeks. Overall, however, the response to the 1.1% drop in the Dollar Index was mixed, with light net selling of EUR, CHF, and GBP being more than offset by heavy buying of JPY and CAD. The result was a small 3% reduction in the gross dollar long versus eight IMM currency futures from a six-year high to USD 33.7 billion.

Ahead of Trump’s inauguration, the biggest short position had been held in CAD; however, with no tariffs being imposed on day one, the net short position saw a 10% reduction to 151k contracts, or USD 10.5 billion equivalent. The JPY short was cut in half as the JPY rallied 1.5% ahead of Friday’s expected rate hike. Mexico, in Trump’s cross-hairs, saw continued selling of the peso flip the position to a small net short for the first time in 22 months.

Non-commercial IMM forex futures positions versus the dollar in week to 21 January

Commodities:

In commodities, hedge fund buying extended into a fourth week, albeit at a slowing pace, with the total net long positions across 27 major futures contracts reaching a fresh 31-month high at 1.62 million contracts, valued at approximately USD 161 billion. The reporting week included the first two days of Trump’s presidency, and despite softer price action across the energy sector, funds continued their month-long buying spree, especially in crude oil. This left prices exposed to a correction after Brent and WTI began trending lower amid tariffs and increased production concerns.

Elsewhere, precious metal demand primarily benefited gold, which saw the net long position increase by 10% to 234k contracts, still below the 255k from last September. However, digging a bit deeper, we find the gross short position reduced to near zero, consequently boosting the long/short ratio to an unhealthy 43 longs per 1 short. This is unhealthy in the sense that a deeper correction, where the speculative long needs to be reduced, will struggle to find a speculative short position willing to absorb the selling.

Buying interest across the agriculture sector remained generally healthy, with the exception of sugar, where the net short jumped to an April 2020 high at 51.7k contracts. In demand was corn, which helped lift the net long to a May 2022 high at 312k contracts, while record high prices in live and feeder cattle gave already very elevated long positions an additional boost.

Managed money commodities long, short, and net positions, as well as changes in the week to 21 January

Energy: Crude oil buying extended to a sixth week, lifting the net long across the three biggest WTI and Brent contracts to a fresh nine-month high, just shy of 500k contracts, and not far from two previous peaks in 2023 and 2024 around 525k. Despite pausing the recent surge in natural gas helped attract additional buying lifting the net long to a September 2021 high at 247k

Metals: Continued gold buying lifted the net long to Gold buying lifted the net long to a three-month high at 234k contracts, on a combination of fresh longs and the gross short being cut to just 5.6k contracts, thereby lifting the long-short ratio to 43. Limited demand for silver, while copper was bought for a third week, lifting the net long by 28%.

Grains: Continued, and broad buying, especially in corn and soybeans helped boost the net long across the six soy and grain contracts to an August 2023 high at 188k. The corn long jumped to a May 2022 high at 312k contracts, as almost non-stop buying since last July continued.

Softs: A mixed week saw the net short in sugar explode higher to an April 2020 high, while strong gains in cocoa and coffee only attracted a relatively small amount of buying amid elevated volatility keeping speculators at bay.

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA’s are:

• They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
• This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
• It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.

Last Updated on 2 days by News Desk 1