U.S. Markets
The SPX index is trading at $7,753 today and remains relatively flat, with the Nasdaq 100 trading at $29,660, as investors weigh easing hopes around the Strait of Hormuz against renewed uncertainty over U.S.-Iran negotiations. Brent crude remains elevated near $90 after climbing almost 4% yesterday, keeping pressure on equities and raising inflation concerns.
The key macro focus shifts to this week’s CPI and PPI reports. With July payrolls unexpectedly contracting, markets face a difficult mix of weaker growth and higher energy prices. Fed rate-hike expectations have eased, with September odds near 50% versus 67% a week ago, but elevated oil prices could complicate the policy outlook.
Technology leadership is also evolving. Software stocks are gaining momentum as cheaper AI tokens and rapidly improving models boost development activity. The software ETF IGV has outperformed the semiconductor index by over 40% since July, highlighting a notable rotation away from the earlier long-semiconductors/short-
Investors will also watch earnings from Cardinal Health, On Holding, Cava Group, CoreWeave and Super Micro Computer. Overall, elevated oil prices and AI financing concerns could cap upside at the $7,775 resistance level, followed by $7,795, keeping the near-term outlook cautious. On the downside, support could be seen at $7,740 and then at $7,700, where dip buyers may enter.
Gold and Silver
Gold and silver are trading lower today, with gold down 0.45% at around $4,370 and silver down 1.64% at $67.67 at the time of writing. Gold had climbed above $4,400 earlier, reaching its highest level in more than two months, before giving back some of its gains as investors turned their attention to Wednesday’s US inflation report. The metal is also showing signs of a broader recovery after dip-buying returned and gold-backed ETF inflows in China improved.
The key focus now is US July CPI, with headline inflation expected to rise 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year. After last week’s weak jobs report, a softer inflation reading could further reduce expectations for a Fed rate hike and provide another boost to gold. On the other hand, stronger inflation, particularly from higher energy prices, could revive rate-hike expectations and put pressure on precious metals.
Technically, gold is trading in an uptrend and holding above 4,350. The 100 day ema at 4,139 should provide support. On the flip side, 4,435, today’s high, remains the immediate resistance. A sustained break above this level would signal renewed bullish momentum and could pave the way for further gains. Similarly, silver has support at 63.96, from an ascending trendline formed in the hourly. Overhead, the 100-day EMA at 66.40 is the key resistance to watch. A break above the moving average would improve the technical outlook and suggest scope for a move higher, while holding above 63.57 keeps the broader bullish structure intact.
Crude Oil
Yesterday Brent increased more than 6% to close above $90.7, as uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz continued to support risk premiums in the oil market. President Trump’s latest demands, including compensation from Iran for victims of past conflicts, have complicated negotiations and reduced expectations for a near-term breakthrough.
The tougher US stance has heightened concerns that disruptions to Middle Eastern energy flows could persist for longer, especially as Iran continues to link any reopening of Hormuz to a broader agreement with Washington. While Trump signalled a preference for increasing economic pressure rather than pursuing new military action, the lack of progress in talks with Iran and Oman has kept oil investors cautious.
Market sentiment is dominated by the threat to the free flow of oil in the world due to the continued or even prolonged disruption in Hormuz, and as such, Brent remains well supported, with a further directional move dependent on diplomacy between the US, Iran and allies.
Brent crude is trading at $91.7, up 1.2%. It has rebounded from its early-August lows at around 82.5, and the technical indicators follow WTI by pointing to a constructive bias. On the 4-hour chart, its RSI at 66 is above the signal line, and its positive MACD histogram is expanding. Brent resistance is at $92.8 to $94.0. In the event of a decline below the 89.0 support, the market could experience a more aggressive correction.
WTI crude is trading at $83.7, up 1.44% on the day so far. Momentum remains on the side of the bulls, with an RSI at 67 above the signal line and a positive, expanding MACD histogram, which is a sign of growing bullish momentum. The Stochastic oscillator remains in overbought territory but is supporting the prevailing uptrend rather than signalling a sell-off. A sustained break above $84 would target $86.1, while a decline below $81 would put a pullback more firmly on the radar.
US Dollar Index
The Dollar Index advanced 0.16% on Monday and is also in the green today. The up move was driven by a rally in oil prices that left stocks wavering while bond yields climbed. Further, traders are increasingly anxious just days ahead of key inflation reports. The lack of a deal to revive the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent to $88. Higher energy costs stoked concerns that the Fed will have to raise rates this year despite a labour-market slowdown.
The closely watched consumer price index is expected to rise 0.1% in July following a 0.4% decline in the prior month, based on the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists ahead of Wednesday’s Bureau of Labour Statistics release.
Japan’s currency slid as much as 1% Monday to past 159 per dollar, wiping out half the rally triggered by the July 31 US-Japan intervention. Pressure for Japan or the US to step in again could rise if the yen sinks past 160 per dollar, a level seen as a key psychological threshold. The EUR/USD seems to be consolidating and held steady around the 1.1545-1.1550 area during the Asian session on Tuesday. Traders seem hesitant to place aggressive bets and opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis and this week’s release of the latest US inflation figures.
Technically, the dollar index is trading at 99.5, below the 9 and 21 EMAs on the daily chart. However, prices have reclaimed the 200 EMA on the daily chart. The long-term trendline support is also still holding, joining the lows of 27th Jan and 7th August 2026, adding to the greenback’s bullishness. On the 4-hour chart, immediate support is at the trendline level of 99.1. A break below this level can turn into a bearish move in the dollar and send it to the 98.7 level. Resistance is at the 99.7 level, which coincides with the 50 EMA. A break above this level can add to the bullish bias of the dollar and push it to the 100 level.
