Gold trades near $4,290, holding close to its lowest level since early August, as markets brace for tomorrow’s FOMC decision with a quarter-point hike now priced at roughly 90%. Renewed Iran-linked conflict has pushed oil sharply higher, with US diesel above $6/gallon for the first time, absorbing inflation-hedge and momentum flows that would typically favour gold. Hotter-than-expected August CPI and PPI data reinforce the case for a hike, even as narrower inflation breadth and an upcoming core PCE revision suggest some of that heat may prove temporary. A near -85% rolling correlation with the dollar index means any post-hike dollar strength should keep gold under pressure in the near term. Beyond tomorrow’s decision, the updated dot plot and pattern of dissent matter more than the hike itself — a hawkish path signalling two more hikes into year-end would extend gold’s downside, while a “one-and-done” message could offer some relief. That said, central banks remain in accumulation mode per World Gold Council data, and ETF holdings have rebounded toward earlier-year levels, providing a structural floor even as tactical momentum stays weak.
On the technical side, gold has broken down from its rising channel off the August low, confirming a bearish shift, with price now trading below both the 200-day and 100-day moving averages and testing the 50-day. Price is consolidating between support at 4,227, followed by 4,187 at the channel base, and resistance at 4,323, then 4,434. A sell-on-rise approach toward resistance is favoured into the FOMC event, given the broken uptrend and negative dollar correlation. A break below 4,227 would open the way toward 4,187, while only a decisive close back above 4,434 would challenge the bearish structure.
Silver trades near $63.04, extending its slide from last week’s high above $67, tracking gold’s weakness ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision. The same dollar-strength and hawkish-Fed transmission channel pressuring gold applies to silver, with its heavier industrial-demand component adding further sensitivity to any growth-related repricing. A hawkish dot plot, or signs of a shallow but extended hiking path, would likely keep pressure on the metal into year-end. Technically, silver has broken below its short-term descending trendline resistance and is now testing support at 62.66, with price remaining capped below the falling trendline near 64.00–65.00. A sell-on-rise approach toward this resistance zone is favoured while the broader structure stays bearish. A break below 62.66 would open the way toward 61.50–62.00, while only a close back above 65.00 would meaningfully shift the bias.
Gold prices in the UAE are as follows:
24K: AED 518.75
22K: AED 480.50
21K: AED 460.50
18K: AED 394.75
Crude Oil
Oil rose for a second day as traders weighed disruptions to Middle East supplies, with a critical Saudi Arabian pipeline still offline.
WTI is up 1.4% near $99 while Brent advanced 1.3%, above $109 a barrel after the East-West pipeline was shut last week. Saudi Aramco has yet to say when it may restart. Riyadh is now trying to raise shipments through the waterway further to compensate.
The attacks on oil infrastructure mark a meaningful escalation. At this stage, the affected volumes and the duration of the outages remain highly uncertain. The conduit — which carries oil across the kingdom to the Red Sea coast — is expected to be out of service for several weeks. However, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that he expected it to be back up and running very soon. Crude is caught between physical realities that continue to point to lost supply and rhetoric pointing toward potential de-escalation. Ultimately, the market will put more weight on barrels and infrastructure than on rhetoric.
On the other end, Trump and Ukraine offered differing accounts on a potential halt to strikes on energy infrastructure. While the US leader said Moscow and Kyiv had agreed to stop such attacks — which have helped to boost diesel prices — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said no deal had been finalized.
From a technical perspective, both Brent and WTI are trading above the 9 and 21 EMA and look bullish. WTI is approaching the critical $100 level on the 4-hour chart, a break above this level can push prices to the $102 and the $104 levels which were seen during the start of the war. Immediate support is at $96, followed by $94 which was the 10th September breakout.
Immediate support for Brent on the 4-hour chart is at $106, followed by $103 which is the 9th September breakout. On the upside, key levels are at $111, followed by $113.
