Our outlook for Q4, as the market backdrop remains a challenge if global equities are to end the year on a high note. One of the lessons markets have delivered repeatedly in recent years is that an impressive backdrop of risks does not deliver “logical” market outcomes. The Iran war
Saxo Bank
As one of the bank’s most ambitious brand initiatives to date, Saxo Bank today announced partnerships with nine internationally renowned athletes. The collaboration bridges the worlds of elite sport and investor psychology, exploring the mindset, discipline, and decision-making that underpin long-term success in investing. For the first time ever, Saxo Bank brings
A flat commodity index conceals growing market divisions The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index heads for a marginal weekly decline of 0.1%, leaving it up 1.6% month-to-date and nearly 35% year-to-date. Beneath the calm headline performance, some divergence has emerged, with strength in energy and soft commodities offsetting losses across metals and grains. The mixed
A dramatic reversal in Treasuries raises new questions Wednesday’s market gyrations following a hotter-than-expected US inflation report highlighted a potentially important shift in investor sentiment, with implications extending well beyond the bond market. While gold recovered from its initial sell-off as Treasury yields reversed sharply lower, technology stocks
Recovering shipments mask a market still under strain Brent crude continues to trade well above USD 100 per barrel despite a sharp recovery in Middle East oil shipments over the past month. At the same time, diesel prices on both sides of the Atlantic have climbed back above USD 200 per barrel equivalent, highlighting a […]
Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer, Century Financial The UAE Cabinet has approved Dh292.5 billion in federal expenditure for the period from 2027 to 2029 which is an increase of 28.3% from the previous three year period. This represents an estimated Dh64.5 billion increase in planned spending equivalent to approximately Dh97.5 billion annually over the new […]
Forex The rapid rebuilding of long dollar positions extended into the latest COT reporting week to 6 October, when Greenback paused its advance with the broad Bloomberg Dollar index trading flat on the week. This did not defer USD buyers with the gross long versus eight IMM futures jumping 40% to USD 35.4 billion, from […]
Gold continues to attract buyers despite facing some of its strongest macroeconomic headwinds in years. Over the past month, a sharp rebound in the dollar, surging government bond yields and a corresponding rise in real yields have increased the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. Yet, while short-term traders have responded by reducing exposure, […]
Banks are increasingly turning to external partners to modernise their wealth management and brokerage offerings, according to a new study about the future of digital wealth released by Saxo today. The study, which surveyed 332 senior decision-makers across banking, brokerage, and fintech across Europe, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and Asia-Pacific
In our latest precious metal update, we wrote that Gold faces a bond-market stress test as yields continue to rise. How much longer can the divergence between gold investment demand and US real yields continue? Today’s price action suggests the relationship is facing an increasingly severe test. Gold trades around USD 4,150, down 3.2%, after […]
US 10-year real yields hit their highest level in more than 20 years on Friday at 2.63%, a 76 basis point increase since the start of the year, while total gold-backed ETF holdings continued to recover following a drop in H1 2026. The divergence highlights an increasingly notable disconnect between gold demand and what historically […]
The Federal Reserve’s latest decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points has put markets on alert for what comes next. While the hike was broadly expected, the Fed’s guidance on further tightening, alongside movements in the US dollar, Treasury yields and equities, will shape the market reaction in the weeks ahead. For the […]
The global oil market is sending increasingly different signals depending on where you look. Brent crude futures trade near USD 110 per barrel after gaining almost 20% so far this month, but the price of securing physical crude for immediate delivery in Europe has surged above USD 130. Meanwhile, diesel prices in the US and […]
The European Central Bank faces one of its more closely watched policy decisions this year as policymakers weigh a renewed rise in headline inflation against signs that underlying price pressures across the eurozone continue to ease. The ECB’s September meeting comes at a particularly delicate moment. Eurozone headline inflation accelerated to 3.3% in August from
– Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank Gold traders – and the algorithmic programmes that account for a significant share of day-to-day activity – are currently struggling to determine which of several competing themes will ultimately set the tone, overall keeping prices rangebound around USD 4,400. As the charts below illustrate, the […]
Commodities In commodities, three major themes drove price action during the latest reporting week to 1 September. Crude oil and refined products received a fresh boost from renewed tensions in the Middle East, while escalating Russian and Ukrainian attacks on each other’s agricultural export infrastructure supported key crops, led by wheat. In metals, Kevin Warsh’s […]
Europe is approaching the coming winter with a considerably thinner energy cushion than in recent years. EU storage is currently around 66% full, the lowest level for this point in the year in roughly 15 years. Germany is particularly exposed: storage is only a little above 50%, compared with the government’s objective of 70% by […]
Global markets have entered September facing an increasingly uncomfortable combination of rising commodity prices, sticky inflation, higher interest-rate expectations and concerns about government debt sustainability. Commodities sit near the centre of this tension, with renewed strength across energy and agriculture adding to inflation pressures just as central banks
Commodities In commodities, the latest reporting week to 25 August covered the period following the surprise US Treasury bond buyback announcement, which triggered a rush into hard assets, particularly precious metals, while the accompanying dollar weakness provided broader support across the commodity complex. It was also a week in which the geopolitical temperature
Macro Inflation came in a shade warmer than expected. The July PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month after a 0.1% fall in June, above the 0.1% forecast, with services prices up 0.3% and goods 0.1% lower. Core PCE also rose 0.2%. Year-on-year the headline rate held at 7% (versus expectations for a dip to 3.6%) […]

















