“As the July 9 deadline approaches, the global economy is bracing for the expiration of the 90-day pause on sweeping U.S. tariffs introduced by President Trump earlier this year. Originally announced on April 2 as part of the administration’s “Liberation Day” trade overhaul, the pause was
Saxo Bank
The world woke up to the threat of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs early in Q2, responding with a crash-like swoon in early April as markets took the new trade regime seriously. But, as traders have come to expect—in what’s now called the “TACO trade” (Trump Always Chickens Out)—Trump quickly announced a 90-day delay to tariffs […]
Speculators raise dollar short to four-year high In forex, speculative flows in the week to 24 June – when the Dollar index dropped 1% to trade near a March 2022 low – continued to favour dollar selling, with the gross short position against eight IMM futures contracts rising 8% to USD 20.3 billion — marking […]
Since our latest update “Oil market on the edge as Hormuz risk premium builds“, which highlighted the market’s nervous response to President Trump’s decision on Saturday to support Israel in a coordinated strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the geopolitical landscape has shifted dramatically—removing in one swift move the supply risk premium that had built
Markets were jolted this weekend as the US, under President Trump, launched airstrikes on three key Iranian nuclear sites, marking a historic escalation in Middle East tensions. The move came without Congressional approval, raising not just geopolitical risk—but also questions about US institutional stability and global investor confidence in US leadership. While the full
Wheat futures in Chicago surged to a two-month high on Wednesday, driven by adverse weather across key growing regions in the U.S., Europe, and Russia, alongside signs of robust export demand—particularly into North Africa. The rally, which comes ahead of the U.S. holiday, has been amplified by hedge funds reducing long-held short positions in both […]
“As the Federal Reserve concludes its June 2025 policy meeting, expectations are firmly anchored around a decision to hold interest rates steady at the current target range of 4.25% to 4.50% . This pause reflects the Fed’s ongoing ‘wait and see’ approach amid a complex economic backdrop characterized by persistent inflationary pressures, resilient labor market […]
Speculators ramp up dollar shorts as DXY hits three-year low In the latest reporting week to 10 June, the US Dollar Index (DXY) extended its slide to a fresh three-year low, prompting a marked shift in speculative positioning. According to CFTC data, non-commercial traders increased their gross USD short positions against the eight major IMM […]
Crude oil markets remain caught in a tug-of-war between bullish near-term demand and rising geopolitical risks on one hand, and macroeconomic headwinds and rising OPEC+ production on the other. In the last hours, Brent crude briefly traded above USD 70 and touched highs last seen in April before drifting lower, as traders continue to digest […]
Forex In the latest reporting week to 3 June, the period saw the USD trade broadly weaker. Speculators nevertheless responded by reducing their overall short USD position versus the eight IMM FX futures contracts by 8%, to USD 12.2 billion. At the individual currency level, buying of EUR and MXN was more than offset by […]
Geopolitical and tariff tensions spark strong weekly start for commodities The commodities sector has started the week with strong gains, led by energy and metals—both precious and industrial—in response to heightened geopolitical and tariff tensions. These developments follow a weekend that saw Ukraine launch a spectacular assault on several of Russia’s strategic
Commodities The latest COT reporting week to 20 May captured the aftermath of the announced 90-day US–China trade truce, which included a temporary reduction in tariffs. While the news supported additional gains across global stock markets and renewed USD weakness, the commodities sector traded in a very mixed fashion—resulting in a 1% drop in the […]
In a recent update, we touched base on platinum, an almost forgotten semi-industrial metal that, for years now, has been struggling for momentum, in the process being boxed into a tightening range, which sooner or later will yield a breakout. Platinum, primarily mined in South Africa while attracting most of its demand from the production […]
Ahead of the Fed meeting today, Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist, Saxo Bank, has shared her comments on the expectations for the meeting. Please find the comment below. “The Fed meeting is almost a sideshow at this point—tariff headlines are doing more to drive market direction. And that means the tactical risk-reward could still be tilted to
US President Trump has been out lashing out at “Mr. Too Late” Fed Chair Powell to cut rates, which triggered a fresh slide in the US dollar. It is all feeling like a bit too much in the near term, and it is worth noting that, while the US dollar did fall and US long […]
Hamza Dweik, Head of Trading and Pricing (MENA), Saxo Bank“The imposition of tariffs has the potential to significantly impact the UAE and GCC countries, even if they’re not directly targeted. Given their reliance on oil exports, any global economic slowdown triggered by these tariffs could lead to a drop in oil prices, straining their economies.
J. Safra Sarasin Group and Saxo Bank announce today the signing of a strategic acquisitionby J. Safra Sarasin of approximately 70% of Saxo Bank, previously held by Geely FinancialsDenmark A/S, a subsidiary of Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. Ltd, and Mandatum Group.This transaction highlights J. Safra Sarasin Group’s strategy of undertaking acquisitions ininnovative and
Commodities: Broad selling emerged across the commodities sector in the reporting period to 25 February, a week that, following a period of solid gains, saw the Bloomberg Commodity Index give back almost 2%. All sectors traded lower, with the agriculture sector particularly hard hit, while also the energy, precious, and industrial metal sectors were left […]
The Saxo Bank Group announces its financial results for 2024, achieving the best results in the company’s history. The Group reported a net profit of USD 146 million for 2024, compared to a net profit of USD 38 million for 2023, corresponding to an increase of 287%. The adjusted net profit for 2024 ended at […]
Commodities: Equities: Macro: FX: Fixed income:






















