The polls have shown further modest tightening for the presidential race, with Harris shrinking lead in the polls pointing to higher odds of a Trump win. Polls in the key seven battleground states are impossibly close and we seem almost guaranteed a nail-biting Election Night on November 5th.
Saxo Bank
The US rate cut cycle has begun As we enter the final quarter of 2024, Saxo Bank’s strategy team highlights a mix of cautious optimism and market risks in its latest quarterly outlook. While inflationary pressures and the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle take centre stage, Saxo warns of ongoing challenges, such as fiscal imbalances and […]
Crude oil’s failed attempt to join the China stimulus-led rally seen among other commodities sectors this past week highlights a market where the focus has switched away from an improved demand outlook to the prospect of additional supply hitting the market at a time when it is not needed. Having failed earlier in the week […]
Gold’s record-breaking rally continues, with spot bullion now approaching USD 2,600 per troy ounce, reflecting a year-to-date gain of over 25%. This surge means a standard 400-troy-ounce gold bar (around 12.4 kilograms or 27.4 pounds), commonly traded internationally and used by central banks, now costs over USD 1 million, up from USD 725,000 last October. […]
With the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates, it’s time to consider how your portfolio is positioned for this shift. Rate cuts typically bring about significant changes in market behaviour, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer a flexible way to adjust your portfolio accordingly. Let’s look at the sectors and ETFs that could be considered to […]
Commodities: Gold prices reached new all-time highs, increasing by 0.77% to close at $2,577.70. Silver also saw a significant rise, climbing 2.81% to $30.72, driven by a declining dollar and lower Treasury yields ahead of the FOMC policy meeting next Wednesday, where rate cuts are widely anticipated. Over the week, gold surged more than 3.5%, […]
Gold’s recent strong performance, with a 20% rise year-to-date and a high of USD 2,531.75 in August, has been driven by a combination of factors that have made it an attractive investment. There are several reasons that the post-election environment could continue to support the gold price, which has handily outperformed the S&P 500 index […]
The stakes in US elections have risen sharply since the shock 2016 election result that saw Trump take the White House. This is especially true when US equities are more dominant than ever, comprising a staggering 65% weight, for example, in the MSCI’s ACWI Index. This global stock index includes both developed and emerging markets, […]
Gold continues to trade cautiously around USD 2500, and in doing so, is trying to break the cycle of negative September returns, a seasonal trend which has seen gold trade lower in all but one of the last ten Septembers. Having suffered a setback to, but not through, support at USD 2470, the yellow metal […]
– John Hardy, Chief Macro Strategist This week: The status of the economy in focus through Friday job numbers Polls have tightened a bit again, and thus back in Trump’s favour as we can see from the shift in the polling and betting odds. Stock markets saw a continued recovery in sentiment after the brief […]
Commodities The commodities sector is heading for its fourth consecutive weekly gain, and throughout August the sector has been supported by a combination of a softer dollar, lower Treasury yields, and expectations the US Federal Reserve will announce the first of several cuts at the 18 September FOMC meeting. Traders and analysts watching US economic […]
During 2024, the Saxo Bank Group rolled out a new competitive pricing structure that lowers costs for clients as well as improvements to the client experience, leading to a record number of clients and client assets, with over 1.2 million end clients and USD 122 billion in client assets as of 30 June 2024. Volatility […]
The Fed and politics: does the Powell Fed want to avoid Trump?Fed Chair Jay Powell made it clear on Friday that the Fed is ready to begin cutting rates. In his speech at an annual Fed gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell stated that “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of […]
Commodities WTI crude oil futures rose 2.49% to $74.83 per barrel, while Brent crude futures increased 2.33% to $79.02 per barrel. Despite these gains, both benchmarks hit their lowest levels since early January due to a significant downward revision in U.S. job growth estimates. Morgan Stanley predicts a surplus in oil supply by 2025 as […]
Commodities: Global financial markets have made a strong recovery, with early August’s market turmoil now a distant memory. This turnaround comes after better-than-expected US economic data reduced fears of a severe downturn in the world’s largest economy, thereby easing pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement deep interest rate cuts.
Markets remain tense following the labour market shock in early August, which highlighted concerns about the rising unemployment rate and fuelled recession fears in the US. The debate between a soft landing and a looming recession has been a central theme in market discussions, and we discussed this macro theme in detail in our blog […]
Since reaching a record high at USD 5.2 per pound in late May, the High-Grade copper contract has slumped 20%, with the bulk of the decline seen during the past month when the demand outlook in China continued to deteriorate, and US data increasingly began pointing to a slowdown. The premature surge to record highs […]
In the last Thursday and Friday trading sessions and pre-market today, markets have experienced a significant spike in volatility, sparking widespread concern among investors. The VIX, commonly known as the “fear gauge,” has surged to levels not seen in recent times, reflecting a heightened state of market anxiety. This dramatic rise in volatility indicators,
The energy sector is heading for its biggest monthly loss since May 2023, with headlines this past month being dominated by the poor outlook for Chinese demand as economic weakness persists in the world’s top importer of crude oil. In addition, the recent loss of risk appetite across key stock market sectors has also led […]
Middle East also factored in Saxo Bank has released its latest outlook for Q3 2024, which paints a cautious picture of the global economy amidst what the Danish bank terms a ‘sandcastle economy’. Despite robust growth in sectors such as defence, AI, and pharmaceuticals, Saxo’s strategy team highlights significant vulnerabilities that could threaten the stability […]



























